白糖：市场氛围偏强

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the sugar industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The sugar market has a strong atmosphere, with the price of sugar showing certain changes and the supply - demand situation varying in different regions [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5360 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan; the futures main contract price is 5285 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 16 yuan. The 15 - spread is 9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 86 yuan; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 75 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - Precious metals and other commodities have risen significantly, creating a strong commodity atmosphere. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of December 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 1.92 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 39.9 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons, and a cumulative MIX of 51.12%, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons. As of December 22, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 820,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral state [4]