招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting various actions such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Gold: Overseas precious metals rose on Friday, with silver up over 10%. The RMB strengthened, and the CME will raise margins. Gold ETFs saw small inflows. Suggest going long on gold and staying on the sidelines for silver due to high volatility [1]. - Silver: Speculative sentiment is strong, with short - term upside potential but increased future volatility. It's recommended to wait and see [1]. Base Metals - Copper: The price continued to rise, driven by precious metals and short - covering. Supply of copper ore remains tight, while downstream demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [2]. - Aluminum: The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with high - load production on the supply side and a slight decline in demand. The positive macro - atmosphere and copper price breakthrough boost sentiment [2]. - Alumina: It has staged a rebound but is constrained by over - supply. The short - term trend may be weak rebounds with high volatility [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. With balanced supply and demand and potential production cut rumors, it's better to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current price is likely to rise due to the anticipation of higher prices in 2026, despite the Q1 demand slump [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price may rise, but short - term chasing risks are high. It's recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [3]. - Tin: The price continued to rise. Supply recovery is slow, and demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [3][4]. Black Industry - Rebar Steel: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are undervalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. - Iron Ore: The market will likely oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is moderately high. It's better to wait and see [5]. - Coking Coal: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are overvalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is likely to be volatile, depending on South American production. The domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [6]. - Corn: The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6][7]. - Oils and Fats: The market is expected to be volatile, with a focus on future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - Sugar: The futures market suggests shorting, and selling call options is also recommended [7]. - Cotton: It's recommended to buy at low prices, with a price reference range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [7]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - Hogs: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention to recent slaughter volume [7]. - Apples: It's recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday sales [8]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [8]. - PVC: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [8]. - PTA: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and there are opportunities to go long on PTA processing margins in the 05 contract [8]. - Rubber: It's recommended to gradually close long positions around 16000 yuan/ton due to weak upward momentum [9]. - Glass: The supply - demand is downward, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - PP: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [9]. - MEG: With a continuous inventory build - up, it's recommended to short at high prices [9]. - Crude Oil: The supply is likely to exceed demand at the end of the year and in Q1. It's recommended to short at high prices, considering geopolitical events [9][10]. - EB: In the short - term, the market may oscillate. In the second quarter, it's advisable to go long on styrene or use the inverse spread strategy for pure benzene [10]. - Soda Ash: The supply is increasing while demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [10].