碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场强势突破，供应扰动与需求分化共振-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market will experience intensified high - level fluctuations under the divergence between sentiment and fundamentals, and its upward space may be limited by industrial hedging pressure and inventory verification. The core contradiction lies in the game between short - term bullish factors on the supply side (mine policy disturbances and seasonal production reduction expectations of salt lakes) and long - term pressure on the demand side (slowing growth of power batteries). Although news stimuli have pushed prices up rapidly, factors such as high - level futures premium, deteriorating production profits, and inventory accumulation in some sectors may restrict the continuous upward movement of prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Conditions - Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot: The weekly price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose 14.0% to 111,400 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday of 113,500 yuan/ton. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 7.57% to 103,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.63% to 101,550 yuan/ton. The futures premium structure was significant, and the basis widened 326.4% to - 8,400 yuan/ton [2][5] - Lithium Hydroxide Spot: The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 5.33% to 88,900 yuan/ton, (electric carbon - fine powder) increased 5.02% to 94,100 yuan/ton, and (industrial carbon) went up 5.69% to 83,600 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - Production Capacity Utilization: The domestic lithium carbonate production capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, while the lithium hydroxide production capacity utilization rate decreased 2.44% to 40.0% [2] - Transportation Cost: The freight of some African lithium ore routes decreased. For example, the container freight from Nigeria dropped 16.67% [2][28] Demand - Demand showed structural differentiation. Energy storage cell production remained high, supporting demand, but the expected growth rate of power battery demand slowed down, and new energy vehicle sales declined month - on - month [2] Inventory - The total exchange warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate increased 3.06% to 15,511 lots. The warehouse receipts of some delivery warehouses, such as Jiangsu Benniu Port, increased 80.0%. The lithium ore inventory of port traders increased 24.76% to 131,000 tons [2][41] Cost and Profit - The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 4.79% to 110,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of externally purchased lithium mica rose 4.31% to 113,714 yuan/ton. The production profit deteriorated, and the loss of externally purchased concentrate increased 24.08% to - 6,999.9 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - Positive Electrode Materials: The report includes sections on the market conditions, production, and consumption of positive electrode materials, but specific data is not detailed in the content - Electrolyte: The report mentions electrolyte price and production, but specific data is not provided - Lithium - Battery Recycling: The report has a section on lithium - battery recycling, but specific content is not detailed - New Energy Vehicles: The report includes new energy vehicle production, sales, and other important data, but specific details are not provided