宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年12月29日）-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the iron ore 2605 contract will experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively [1]. - The iron ore futures price is at a high level due to positive commodity sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The overall trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of wide - range oscillations. The core logic is that positive commodity sentiment keeps the ore price at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Positive commodity sentiment has led to a high - level operation of iron ore futures prices. However, the supply - demand pattern is weakening, with port inventories rising to a high level, steel mill production stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption weakly stable. Steel mill profitability has limited improvement, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, although pre - holiday restocking is a relative positive factor [2]. - Both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have decreased month - on - month but remain at a high level for the year. Overseas ore supply is active, and overall ore supply remains high despite the contraction of domestic ore supply [2]. - Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore prices are at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high - level supply, the fundamental situation is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].