招商期货大类资产配置周报（2025年12月22日-2025年12月26日）：全球流动性趋松，实物资产价值重估-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Logic - Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year due to five reasons, including the end of concerns about yen carry - trade after the yen interest - rate hike, the Fed's shift to "technical expansion of the balance sheet", potential institutional capital inflows at the beginning of the year, proactive fiscal policy in China, and the potential for A - share valuation and profit repair. Hong Kong stocks have additional advantages of low valuation and the end of the解禁 peak, and commodities are expected to remain strong due to the revaluation of physical assets [6]. - In the US, the real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by personal consumption, net exports, and government spending. However, there are internal economic disparities, and caution is needed due to potential temporary factors and a possible government shutdown in Q4 [7]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, driven by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, narrowing of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. This is a sustainable trend, but short - term over - adjustment risks need to be watched [8]. - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 13.1% in November. There are significant differences in industry performance, with the export and high - tech manufacturing sectors supporting profits, while domestic - demand - related industries dragging down the overall growth [9]. - From a meso - economic perspective, the high - frequency economic activity index is at a high level in recent years but has declined significantly. Land transaction area has increased, while traditional industries such as real estate, infrastructure, and some key anti - involution products are under pressure [10]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Logic | Risk Points | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to long - term: Global fiscal and monetary policies are jointly exerting force, China's PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, capital is flowing, and global demand is stable. Short - term: Expectations of further Fed rate cuts, new valuation space in the new year, and the end of concerns about yen carry - trade. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation, optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market [11]. | | Bonds | Medium - to long - term: Limited domestic rate - cut space, inflation and economic improvement due to the unified market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term: Bond yields have risen significantly, and economic momentum lacks explosiveness. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term reduction in allocation [11]. | | Commodities | Medium - to long - term: Fiscal and monetary policies will drive PPI to turn positive next year, Fed rate cuts will weaken the US dollar, and short - duration commodities are affected by real - world factors. Short - term: Abundant liquidity leads to the revaluation of physical assets such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, while the demand for the black - chain is weak. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, trading opportunities in anti - involution - related varieties [11]. | 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Viewpoints - Market Logic: Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year, analyze the US economic situation, the RMB exchange - rate trend, China's industrial enterprise profit status, and meso - economic indicators [6][7][8][9][10]. - Logic of Major Asset Classes: Provide investment logic, risk points, and allocation suggestions for stocks, bonds, and commodities [11]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - Investment Index Performance: Present the performance of different asset classes in terms of recent returns (weekly, monthly, year - to - date, quarterly), drawdowns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios [22]. - Valuation, Volatility, and Speculation Degree: Analyze the valuation, volatility, trend smoothness, and speculation degree of different asset classes, including the original values and their percentile rankings over one - year and three - year periods [23]. - Stock - Futures Linkage: Compare the performance of commodity - related indices and stock - related indices in terms of weekly, monthly, and year - to - date returns [25]. 03 Macro - overview - Domestic Situation: In November, the unemployment rate remained stable, the CPI continued to rise, the M1 growth rate decreased significantly, and the PMI showed a slight rebound [27][33]. - Overseas Situation: The US PMI decreased in November, and the US - Europe interest - rate spread and risk indicators are analyzed [36][39]. 04 Meso - data - Economic Activity: In November, industrial added value decreased slightly compared to October, and indicators such as flight volume, subway passenger volume, and the high - frequency economic activity index are presented [46]. - Real Estate: Multiple real - estate indicators are at the bottom, while PVC demand is at a high level, including land transaction area, housing sales area, and demand for building materials [49]. - Shipping and Exports: Shipping freight indices and export data of some key commodities are presented, including CCFI, CICFI, the Belt and Road trade - volume index, and the export growth rate of home appliances, integrated circuits, and automobiles [65].