国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251229

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures are in different market conditions, including high - level oscillations, limited upward space, and potential for rebounds or continued weakness [2]. - Each commodity's market situation is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, device operations, and macro - economic conditions [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High - level oscillation market. Supply is marginally loose while demand is decreasing, but the tight - balance pattern remains due to high polyester开工率. Attention should be paid to position management before the festival [8]. - PTA: High - level oscillation market. Supply decreases and demand increases, with continuous inventory reduction, which is beneficial for the performance of spreads and basis [9]. - MEG: There is an expectation of supply contraction. It is in a price - range oscillation market. Although inventory accumulation is hard to change, the situation may improve marginally. Interval operations are recommended [10]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Commodity preference sentiment has supported price increases, but factors such as port inventory accumulation and overseas supply pressure still exist [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. However, near - term fundamental weakness restricts the upward elasticity of prices. The butadiene raw material has a neutral short - term fundamental situation [15][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt spot price is temporarily stable. The total domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to decline. Factory inventory is decreasing while social inventory is mixed [18][28]. LLDPE - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream. The market faces supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29][30]. PP - In January, multiple PDH units are planned for maintenance, and the PP market is stabilizing and oscillating. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units [32][33]. Caustic Soda - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited in height, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. It has a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [35][36]. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as exchange rates, downstream demand, and cost expectations, with no clear one - sided driving force [39][42]. Methanol - Methanol is oscillating. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the near - term fundamental pressure increases. It is in a pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - situation [45][48]. Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillation. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased, providing support for prices. The 05 contract has a support level due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [50][53]. Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks from downstream inventory and demand [54][57]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces [58]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a rebound from the bottom [58]. PVC - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited in height. It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and large - scale supply reduction is expected after the 03 contract [66][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It is mainly in a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term [71]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [71]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - Fiber: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures are rising, and the spot sales have improved [73]. - Bottle Chip: It is in high - level oscillation. The raw material futures are rising, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair [74]. Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is in a wait - and - see state. The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is not active [76][77]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. It is currently in a "weak chemical reality" situation, but the market may improve in the second quarter of 2026 [81][82].