甲醇周报：预期有所改善，甲醇期货或偏强震荡-20251229

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Although the overall supply is relatively abundant and demand changes are limited, the methanol futures market may operate strongly due to expected supply reduction and downstream stocking expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, influenced by improved expectations, methanol futures showed a strong oscillation. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,160 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous week [5][11]. - Spot: Last week, the port methanol price was still strong, while the inland methanol price was weak, showing a regional differentiation trend. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,120 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,090 - 2,130 yuan/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, domestic methanol production continued to rise as more plants resumed production than were under maintenance. The supply - side support remained weak [7]. - Demand: The downstream olefin operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall downstream demand was stable but weak. The demand in the inland area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample enterprises rose, and the volume of pending orders decreased. The port methanol inventory increased significantly, with a large increase in Jiangsu [7][19][21]. - Profit: Last week, coal prices stopped falling, while methanol prices were still weak, and the profits of coal - to - methanol enterprises deteriorated again [7][24]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: Around New Year's Day, methanol supply will remain relatively abundant. In the future, domestic and foreign methanol maintenance may increase, imports may decline, and the supply is expected to decrease [8]. - Demand: The change in demand is limited. Downstream enterprises have stocking expectations, and macro - policies may be introduced [8]. - Market Trend: The spot market may be narrowly sorted, while the futures market may operate strongly [8]. 3.4 Operation Strategy Considering the positive expectations, methanol futures may operate strongly, and investors can consider selling put options [9].