节前小幅补库，铁矿震荡小涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The overseas iron ore arrivals and shipments decreased last week but remained at high levels in the same period of history, with a significant increase in port inventory and continuous supply pressure. On the demand side, the molten iron production stopped falling and stabilized last week, and steel mills made small - scale replenishments before the holiday, leading to a low - level rebound in in - plant inventory. Supported by the pre - holiday replenishment, the market is expected to show a volatile trend [1][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3118 | - 1 | - 0.03 | 4998891 | 2309982 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3283 | 14 | 0.43 | 1750294 | 1238912 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 783.0 | 3.0 | 0.38 | 1134250 | 567104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1115.5 | 7.5 | 0.68 | 6630132 | 660689 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1720.0 | - 20.0 | - 1.15 | 107944 | 34179 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and rebounded last week. Supported by pre - holiday replenishment, both futures and spot prices rose slightly. In the spot market, the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 797 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special fines was 675 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB fines and Super Special fines was 122 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production stopped falling and stabilized last week. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments before the holiday, and the in - plant inventory rebounded from a low level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and 0.39 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 12.55 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average molten iron production was 226.58 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 1.29 tons from the same period last year [4]. - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore arrivals and shipments decreased last week but remained at high levels in the same period of history. The port inventory increased significantly, and the supply pressure remained. The total global iron ore shipments were 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 128.0 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2814.7 tons, a decrease of 150.8 tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1950.6 tons, a decrease of 102.0 tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1694.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 864.1 tons, a decrease of 48.8 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2748.6 tons, a decrease of 140.7 tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1889.2 tons, a decrease of 101.3 tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1633.1 tons, a decrease of 6.9 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 859.4 tons, a decrease of 39.4 tons from the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 16619.96 tons, an increase of 394.43 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing. It was pointed out that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue to be implemented in 2026, the fiscal expenditure scale would be expanded, and the government bond tool combination would be optimized. Six key tasks for fiscal work in 2026 were required, including focusing on domestic demand, boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas such as new - quality productivity and all - around human development, and increasing fiscal investment in science and technology [10]. - Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, chaired a meeting of the Leading Group for the Compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan. He emphasized planning major projects, projects, and carriers that could drive the overall situation to accumulate new momentum and competitiveness for future development and support domestic demand expansion and economic stability [10]. - Beijing further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy. The social security or individual income tax payment period for non - Beijing households to purchase commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road was reduced from "3 years" to "2 years", and outside the Fifth Ring Road from "2 years" to "1 year". Families with multiple children could purchase one more house within the Fifth Ring Road. The commercial loan interest rate no longer distinguished between first - and second - home purchases, and the minimum down - payment ratio for second - home provident fund loans was reduced to 25% [10]. - Handan and Baoding launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 26; Xingtai launched a Level I emergency response at 18:00 on December 25; Xi'an implemented a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 16:00 on December 26; Anhui Province issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts A series of charts are provided, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore; the basis trend of iron ore; the global production trends of pig iron and crude steel; the shipment volumes of iron ore from Australia and Brazil; the inventory of iron ore at ports and steel mills; the production of domestic mines; and the international freight rates of iron ore [8][11][12][13][15][19][22][24][32][35][40].