铝周报：多头氛围浓烈铝价偏强-20251229

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - situation shows that US Q3 GDP and consumption data strengthen the resilience of the US economy, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year. A domestic NDRC article boosts the sentiment of the entire non - ferrous sector, creating a strong bullish atmosphere. Fundamentally, the new production capacity in China and Indonesia continues to increase supply, and the previous shipping issues in the northwest are resolved, leading to a small increase in supply. On the consumption side, due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices, the off - season for downstream production deepens. Aluminum ingot inventory increases by 17,000 tons to 617,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increases by 1,500 tons to 124,500 tons. Overall, domestic policy announcements and the strong copper price drive the metal sector. After the Christmas holiday, US data may affect Fed expectations and amplify market sentiment fluctuations. The aluminum market sees increasing supply and decreasing demand, with social inventory gradually accumulating. The fundamentals provide limited support for high aluminum prices, but in the short term, sentiment dominates, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [2][7]. - For cast aluminum, last week's aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%. Due to high costs for secondary aluminum enterprises, some regions reduced production due to profit decline, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental protection factors, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. On the consumption side, considering factors such as the subsidy policy roll - back in 2026 and pre - emptive consumption demand, the sustainability of new energy vehicle orders in the later stage is uncertain. The exchange inventory increases slightly by 298 tons to 70,000 tons. Overall, under the influence of strong aluminum prices and high scrap aluminum prices, the cost support is strong, but due to poor consumption expectations and high inventory pressure, the upward momentum is weak, and the cast aluminum market is expected to remain volatile [2][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Transaction Data - The SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price rises from $22,250 to $22,495 per ton, an increase of $245 [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increases from 519,600 tons to 521,050 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increases from 76,188 tons to 77,059 tons, an increase of 871 tons [4]. - The spot average price rises from 21,730 yuan/ton to 21,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the South China spot weekly average price is 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - In the US, Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate is 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%, with strong consumer spending as the main driver. The core PCE price index rises 2.9%. In addition, US core capital goods orders and shipments in October both recover, while the consumer confidence index in December drops from 92.9 to 89.1 [5]. - The NDRC's article emphasizes strengthening management and layout optimization of industries such as alumina and copper smelting [5]. - The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry operating rate drops by 0.6% to 60.8% due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices [6]. - On December 25, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 617,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 124,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [6]. - The Friday spot price of cast aluminum alloy SMM is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday; Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price is 21,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, for electrolytic aluminum, sentiment is expected to drive prices to remain strong in the short term, while for cast aluminum, it is expected to remain volatile [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports are about 147,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to November, the cumulative primary aluminum imports are about 2.358 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [10]. - Hydro Energi and Hafslund Kraft AS sign a new long - term power purchase agreement, with Hafslund supplying 1.75 TWh of electricity to Hydro from 2036 to 2040 [10]. - On December 22, the Mozambique's Confederation of Business Associations calls on the government to avoid the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant at all costs [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - third contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium and discount, and various inventory and price seasonal change charts [12][15][19][21][23][25][27][29].