铅周报：流动性风险支撑，铅价震荡偏强-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the lead price of the main SHFE contract rebounded. The US economic data showed strong resilience, and the employment data was moderate, leading to a slight increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weak US dollar, which was beneficial to the lead price. The lead concentrate market had little trading, and the processing fee was weakly stable. The scrap battery recyclers' reluctance to sell increased, and the quotation was slightly raised. The primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, and the supply improved marginally. The secondary lead supply was still tight due to environmental protection and raw material shortages. The terminal consumption acceptance declined after the end of the new national standard transition period and stricter supervision, and the spot trading was weak. Overall, the warm macro - sentiment and tight domestic spot supported the lead price rebound, but the open lead ingot import window and the expected transfer of overseas high - inventory pressure restricted the rebound height. In the short term, the lead price was expected to remain oscillating strongly, but the risk of a pullback after the New Year's Day holiday should be vigilant [3][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Transaction Data - From December 19th to December 26th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,880 yuan/ton to 17,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 675 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,984.5 dollars/ton to 1,999.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 15 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio rose from 8.51 to 8.78, an increase of 0.27. The SHFE inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 9,725 tons to 248,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 1.79 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2602 rebounded strongly, closing at 17,555 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 4%. The LME lead continued to rebound, closing at 1,999.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of December 26th, the Jiangxi lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 17,300 - 17,330 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract. The spot market had few circulating supplies, and the transaction was sluggish. As of December 26th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,725 tons. The SHFE inventory was 27,095 tons, a decrease of 780 tons from last week. As of December 25th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from Monday and 0.26 million tons from last Thursday [5] Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat month - on - month. In November, the lead concentrate import volume was 109,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year increase of 15.78%. The silver concentrate import volume was 181,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.13% and a year - on - year increase of 26.51%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.04%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,675 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% [8] Related Charts - The content includes multiple charts showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, lead ingot premiums, price differences between primary and secondary lead, scrap battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][14]