橡胶：震荡偏强20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the sentiment in the natural rubber market improved, leading to rising rubber prices. Despite factors like the slowdown in factory rubber - purchasing in Hainan due to approaching the end of the harvest season, high - yield overseas production, and increasing port inventories, the positive sentiment among traders supported the price increase. With the expected reduction in overseas ship arrivals, the inventory accumulation at ports may slow down, providing short - term support to the natural rubber market [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,780 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 15,775 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 42,266 lots to 340,531 lots, while the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 3,095 lots to 185,943 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 700 tons to 93,930 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 521 lots to 40,467 lots [2] - Spread Data: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" decreased by 20 to - 480, and the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" decreased by 70 to - 1,000. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 15 to 30. Among the foreign quotes, RSS3 increased by 20 to 2,130 dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 5 to 1,875 dollars/ton, and SIR20 increased by 10 to 1,800 dollars/ton, while STR20 remained unchanged at 1,880 dollars/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 100 to 11,500 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 150 to 11,300 yuan/ton [2] - Spot Market: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,865 dollars/ton for near - port and 1,870 dollars/ton for spot. The price of Thai standard rubber was in the range of 1,860 - 1,865 dollars/ton, down 5 - 10 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] 3.2 Industry News - Last week, the average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex was 15,040 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.60%; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,852 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars or 0.65%; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,608 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan or 0.68% [3][4] - In December 2025, the estimated import volume of natural rubber in China is 71.91 tons, an increase of 7.55 tons compared to the final import volume in November. With most overseas production areas in the peak - production period and no significant improvement in EU EUDR procurement, more overseas supplies are flowing into China [4]