格林期货早盘提示：国债-20251229

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (government bonds) sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The short - term trend of government bond futures may be volatile. The stock market and government bond futures both rose on Friday. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Market Performance - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, climbed in the morning, then fell rapidly, rebounded in the afternoon and fell slightly, closing up 0.34% with a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 1.94 trillion yuan [1][2] Important News - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 56.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 36.8 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, up from 1.48% of the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year government bond yield rose 0.20 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year fell 0.80 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.10 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.19 BP to 2.22% [1] - Industrial enterprise data: From January to November, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The total profit was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, indicating greater operating pressure on industrial enterprises [1] - Fiscal policy: The National Fiscal Work Conference from December 27th to 28th stated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the government bond tool combination, etc. A special consumption - boosting action will be carried out, and funds will be allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Central bank report: The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", proposing to implement a more proactive macro - policy and prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment [1][2] Market Logic - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. In December, industrial product prices continued to hover at low levels, while agricultural product wholesale prices rose, helping the December CPI to remain at a relatively high level within the year. New home sales in December continued to decline significantly year - on - year. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy according to the situation [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investment should conduct band operations [2]