英大证券晨会纪要-20251229

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend supported by multiple positive factors, including easing global liquidity concerns, favorable policies, and currency improvements [2][17] - The market's resilience is evident as indices managed to recover after initial declines, with significant performances from sectors like energy metals, precious metals, and Hainan free trade zone stocks [1][16] Market Overview - Last Friday, the A-share market showed a mixed opening, followed by a brief upward movement before a quick pullback. However, the market rebounded in the afternoon, closing positively with all three major indices ending in the green [5][6] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a total trading volume of 21,602 billion, indicating a moderate level of investor engagement [6] Weekly Market Review - The major indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component by 3.53%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.90% [7] - Key sectors that performed well included energy metals, precious metals, and commercial aerospace, while some high-valuation sectors faced corrections [8][11] Sector Analysis - New Energy Sector: Stocks related to energy metals, batteries, and lithium mining showed strong performance, driven by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and supportive government policies [8][9] - Precious Metals: The precious metals sector saw gains due to rising prices of gold, silver, and platinum, influenced by factors such as the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle and increased geopolitical tensions [10] - Commercial Aerospace: The commercial aerospace sector has been active, benefiting from clear top-level policies and significant market potential, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this area [11] - Hainan Free Trade Zone: Stocks in the Hainan free trade zone surged following the official launch of the island's free trade operations, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [12] - Military Industry: The military sector has shown robust performance, supported by ongoing government investment and geopolitical tensions that may drive demand for military capabilities [13] Future Market Outlook - The market's basic improvement requires time for validation, with macroeconomic data showing marginal improvements but lacking a clear recovery point. The expectation for policy stimulus remains high, particularly around the Lunar New Year [18] - Investment strategies should focus on selecting stocks with strong earnings support across various sectors, including technology growth, cyclical industries, and dividend stocks, while avoiding high-valuation speculative stocks [18]