钢材年报：政策主导方向，需求决定空间

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market in 2026 is expected to revolve around "demand structure change", "supply regulation", and "cost support". The market will show a weak and volatile trend with limited upside and downside space, restricted by demand increment on the upside and supported by cost and supply regulation on the downside [1][2]. - Policy will significantly influence the end - use flow of steel. Coil demand may maintain a certain growth rate, infrastructure will provide a cushion, while the real - estate construction sector will remain weak [1]. - Supply regulation aims to guide steel towards high - value - added products, and steel mills face the challenge of reducing production while maintaining profits in the over - capacity stage. Supply is expected to slightly decline [2]. - Cost support depends on the "anti - involution" trend in the coal industry and the price support of iron ore. Iron ore prices may decline in 2026 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Three Keywords - Weak demand for finished products: In 2025, real - estate construction demand was weak, and infrastructure's demand - increasing effect on building materials was limited. Although manufacturing and exports provided some support, they couldn't make up for the real - estate demand gap, restricting the upside of steel, iron ore, and coking coal prices [7]. - Anti - involution policy: It dominated the second - half trend of the black - sector market, especially in the coal sector. Policy changes led to significant price fluctuations in coking coal and coke [8]. - Tariff trade war: Sino - US trade frictions mainly affected the indirect export of coils, intensifying market fluctuations in the black sector [8]. 1.2 Policy Review - Steel - related policies in 2025 focused on "promoting upgrading + stabilizing growth + anti - involution", while coal - related policies emphasized "anti - involution + safety + supply guarantee + clean and efficient utilization". In 2026, steel policies will continue to promote high - end development and "anti - involution" implementation needs attention [11][12]. 1.3 Market Recap - January - February: Before and after the Spring Festival, demand was weak. Steel winter - storage willingness was low. After the festival, construction resumption was delayed, and steel prices were under pressure. Coal prices were lowered, while iron ore prices were firm due to shipping disruptions [14]. - March - May: The domestic demand peak season was below expectations, and export trade frictions intensified. Steel prices dropped, and coal prices declined significantly, while iron ore prices were relatively stable [15]. - June - July: Coal supply tightened, and the "anti - involution" policy pushed the black - sector market to rebound. Steel prices increased under cost support [16]. - August - October: The "anti - involution" policy expectations fluctuated, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were disappointed. Steel continued to accumulate inventory, and steel mill profits were compressed [17]. - November - December: Coal prices fluctuated due to supply - side disturbances. Steel supply, demand, and inventory were all weak, with limited fundamental contradictions [18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Terminal Demand - Real estate: In 2025, real - estate investment, sales, and other data continued to decline. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but property sales and investment are expected to decline in 2026, reducing steel demand in real - estate construction [20][28]. - Infrastructure: By October 2025, infrastructure investment turned negative year - on - year due to local fiscal constraints and the use of special bonds for debt repayment. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to have limited growth [29][39]. - Manufacturing and indirect export: Manufacturing's demand for steel increased, driven by the "Two New" policies. However, due to consumption front - loading, the growth rate of steel demand in manufacturing may slow down in 2026 [40][49]. - Direct export: As of November 2025, steel exports increased, mainly through "price - for - volume" strategy. In 2026, exports are expected to increase slightly, and exports will develop towards high - value - added and compliant products [54][58]. - Steel demand forecast: In 2026, the total demand for crude steel is expected to be 9.84 billion tons, a slight decrease from 2025. Different scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic) have different demand forecasts [59][60]. 2.2 Steel Supply - In 2025, steel supply was in a situation of high capacity and weak demand. Crude steel and pig iron production decreased, while steel production increased. Supply is expected to be adjusted according to policy and profit changes in 2026 [62]. 2.3 Steel Inventory - In 2025, the inventory pressure of rebar was relatively low, with high - level inventory in winter - storage and then continuous de - stocking. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased in the second half of the year and had relatively high pressure [69][72]. 2.4 Steel Supply - Demand Summary - Supply is mainly affected by policy regulation and steel mill profits. In 2026, crude steel supply is expected to tighten, and different supply - demand scenarios are predicted [73]. 3. Outlook for 2026 3.1 Market Outlook - The steel market in 2026 will be influenced by demand structure change, supply regulation, and cost support. It is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [74][75]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Single - side trading: Focus on short - selling at high points in the range [3]. - Arbitrage: Consider spread trading at the upper and lower limits of the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rebar/hot - rolled coil and short on iron ore [3]. - Options: Sell call options at the upper limit of the price range [3].