格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Report's Core View - The methanol market is currently under pressure in the real - world situation due to significant inventory accumulation at ports and in the inland areas. The price of methanol is oscillating, and future focus should be on the de - stocking amplitude at ports and the start - stop status of Iranian plants. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2120 - 2220 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 5 yuan to 2151 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region dropped by 10 yuan to 2135 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 3784 lots to 462,000 lots, and short positions increased by 476 lots to 591,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 19,370 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28% [1] - Demand: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises is 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [1] - Import: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1417,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia, which was 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [1] - Macroeconomic: The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%. Traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The 2.3 - million - ton Kaveh plant in Iran shut down due to gas restrictions, but the 1.65 - million - ton Bushers plant restarted. There is still pressure in the real market as ports and the inland areas had significant inventory accumulation last week. The import volume in November was 1.417 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12%, and the methanol price is oscillating [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1]