格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of pure benzene is expected to be oscillating bullish in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5600 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or buy on dips [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 rose 46 yuan to 5501 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5325 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5167 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan). Long positions increased by 505 lots to 17,300 lots, and short positions increased by 500 lots to 20,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: In November, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons [1] - Inventory: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous inventory of 280,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.6%. From December 15 to December 21, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 69.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1%; the operating rate of phenol was 75%, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the operating rate of aniline was 61.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.6%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 59.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. Caprolactam plants started self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production [1] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - Crude Oil: Due to the Western Christmas holiday, international crude oil futures were closed for one day without settlement prices. The 2602 contract of China INE crude oil futures rose 0.4 to 443 yuan/barrel and rose 1.7 to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [1] - Economic Data: The US November consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The opening of the arbitrage window between Asia and America may ease the future arrival pressure, and crude oil has rebounded from a low level recently. The pure benzene port has a slight inventory build - up, but the speed has slowed down, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side has declined. The transaction price in Shandong continued to rise over the weekend. The short - term pure benzene price is oscillating bullish [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see or buy on dips [1]