白糖周报：白糖市场弱势下行，供应压力主导盘面-20251229

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "白糖市场弱势下行，供应压力主导盘面 -- 白糖周报2025年12月15日 - 19日" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [1] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [1] Group 2: This Week's View Core View - The sugar market is in a downward trend, driven by supply pressure, with the price expected to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - seeking pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] Market Conditions - Spot Market: Spot prices generally declined. Liuzhou spot price dropped 1.88% week - on - week to 5,230 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was pessimistic with a 70% bearish ratio. The basis strengthened to 142 yuan/ton, a 1320% week - on - week surge, indicating that the futures decline was greater than that of the spot [3] - Futures Market: The main contract price fell 2.29% during the week, closing at 5,088 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous support. The open interest increased significantly by 21.8% to 523,000 lots, showing significant short - position increasing pressure, and the price fluctuation showed a one - way downward feature [3] - Supply: The new domestic sugar - pressing season has fully started, with southern sugar mills starting production intensively, and the supply pressure of new sugar on the market continues. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,101, a 142.79% week - on - week surge, confirming the registration pressure of new sugar [3] - Demand: Terminal procurement was cautious, and demand was weak. The bearish sentiment in the market was strong, with the bearish ratio increasing by 27.27% month - on - month to 70%, indicating that downstream players were generally pessimistic about the future market [3] - Import and Export: In October, the sugar import volume increased by 39.7% year - on - year, and the supply channels were loose. The in - quota import profit was substantial (1,861 yuan/ton for Brazilian sugar), and the out - of - quota profit was also positive, with the import window remaining open [3] - Cost and Profit: The domestic production cost supported the price, but the import processing cost decreased by 1.41% - 2.21% month - on - month. The out - of - quota import profit increased by 6.2% - 12.93% month - on - month, and the import hedging pressure remained high [3] - Inventory: The number of futures warehouse receipts was 3,611, a 491% week - on - week surge, and the valid forecast was 1,490. The inventory pressure was rapidly becoming apparent in the form of warehouse receipts [3] Group 3: Market Review Weekly Review | Category | Region | Last Friday | This Friday | Weekly Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | 11 - day sugar continuous contract closing price | 15.1 | 14.82 | - 1.85% | | | Zhengzhou sugar main contract closing price | 5320 | 5088 | - 4.36% | | Spot | Nanning current price | 5340 | 5240 | - 1.87% | | | Liuzhou current price | 5330 | 5230 | - 1.88% | | | Kunming current price | 5280 | 5180 | - 1.89% | | | Rizhao Lingyunhai current price | 5800 | 5780 | - 0.34% | | Basis | Liuzhou sugar and main contract basis | 10 | 142 | 1320.00% | | | Warehouse receipt quantity | 611 | 3611 | 491.00% | | | Valid forecast | 1490 | 1490 | 0.00% | | | Total: Warehouse receipts + valid forecasts | 2101 | 5101 | 142.79% | | CFTC Non - commercial Position | Long | 337475 | | VALUE! | | | Short | 154913 | | VALUE! | | | Net long | - 182562 | | VALUE! | | Market Sentiment | Zhengzhou sugar bullish ratio (%) | 10 | 10 | 0 | | | Zhengzhou sugar bearish ratio (%) | 55 | 70 | 15 | | | Zhengzhou sugar neutral ratio (%) | 35 | 20 | - 15 | [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis China Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content China's Main Sugar - Producing Areas (Cane Sugar) - Not detailed in the provided content China's Main Sugar - Producing Areas (Beet Sugar) - Not detailed in the provided content China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content China's Sugar Import and Export - Not detailed in the provided content China's Main Sugar Importing Countries - Not detailed in the provided content China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit | Country | Project | | Last Week's Price | This Week's Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | Processing cost | In - quota | 3960 | 3904 | - 1.41% | | | | Out - of - quota | 5050 | 4976 | - 1.47% | | | Import profit | In - quota | 1832 | 1861 | 1.58% | | | | Out - of - quota | 742 | 788 | 6.20% | | | Premium/discount | | - 0.19 | 0.03 | 115.79% | | | Shipping cost | | 37.08 | 35.27 | - 4.88% | | Thailand | Processing cost | In - quota | 4013 | 3926 | - 2.17% | | | Import profit | In - quota | 1779 | 1839 | 3.37% | | | | Out - of - quota | 5118 | 5005 | - 2.21% | | | | Out - of - quota | 673 | 760 | 12.93% | | | Premium/discount | | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.00% | | | Shipping cost | | 18 | 18 | 0.00% | [31] Group 5: International Market Fundamentals Brazil's Available Sugar Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Sugar Production Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Ethanol Production Volume - Not detailed in the provided content Brazil's Sugar Import and Export - Not detailed in the provided content International Raw Sugar Premium/Discount and Shipping Cost - Not detailed in the provided content