黑色：期市氛围偏暖黑色窄幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > hot - rolled coil > coke > iron ore > rebar. The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices, but the black sector was relatively weak [4]. - For steel products, the static valuation is neutral, and it is expected to run in a range with short - term trading recommended. For coal and coke, although the absolute inventory in the industry chain is not high, the market expectation is weak. For iron ore, there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment by steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices. The non - ferrous sector led, and many varieties in the energy and chemical sector rose by about 5%. The black sector was relatively weak [4][8] 03 Spot Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented [10] 04 Profit and Valuation - The rebar futures price has risen above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation. Steel mill profitability has stabilized [12][13] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production and demand were both weak, but inventory depletion was smooth, and short - term supply - demand contradictions were not significant. China implements export license management for steel, and there is an expectation of weakening steel exports [5][14] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, both port and steel mill iron ore inventories increased significantly. Iron ore shipments slightly declined from the high level, but arrivals are expected to remain high. Iron water production has stopped falling, and there is an expectation of steel mill resumption in January [5][23] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production declined, but Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and coking coal inventory increased significantly. The market expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage replenishment rhythm [5][28] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and coking plant profits are currently low. Last week, coke production remained stable month - on - month, but inventory increased again [5][30] 09 Variety Price Differences - The steel mill's on - paper profit fluctuated at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference widened [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The State Council executive meeting made arrangements for implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference. The DCE adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin. Other information includes international interest rate adjustments, economic data, and industry - related policies [37]