Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Team of the Industrial Service Headquarters - Researcher: Wang Guodong Report's Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and the market anticipates an optimistic outlook for next year, leading to price increases in many non - ferrous metals, the spot discount has widened more than seasonally. It is not recommended to chase high prices before the holiday [3]. - The prices of domestic and imported bauxite are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is under pressure and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Views Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite prices in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. Domestic and imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina remains unchanged at 95.9 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to heavy pollution weather control [3][13]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons to 44.529 million tons week - on - week. New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity [3][22]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week. Overall demand is entering the off - season, and the high - level and volatile aluminum prices are suppressing downstream demand [3]. - The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly during the week. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy has rebounded in Chongqing due to the lifting of environmental protection control, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday [4]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6][7]. 03. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. Due to issues such as mining rectification and environmental protection supervision, it is difficult for many mines to resume production in the short term [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. The shipment volume of Guinea's ore has increased, and the spot supply of imported ore has increased, putting pressure on ore prices [10]. - The long - term contract price of Guinea's large - scale mining enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2025 [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, also with no week - on - week change. The operating rate was 83.6% [13]. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot decreased by 63.9 yuan/ton to 2,660.9 yuan/ton week - on - week [13]. - The national alumina inventory increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons week - on - week. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to environmental protection factors, while enterprises in other regions maintain stable production [13]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy to encourage mergers and reorganizations of large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises, which pushed alumina prices to the daily limit during the session [13]. 05. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [15][16][17][18]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.337 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.529 million tons, also an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week [22]. - In terms of capacity reduction and resumption, some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy have been shut down for technological transformation, involving a capacity of about 40,000 tons, and some aluminum plants in Xinjiang have reduced production due to environmental protection control [22]. - New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity, which will reach full production in 2026 [22]. 07. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai Aluminum, the prices of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [24]. 08. Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [26][27][28][29]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises has increased by 1% to 60.8% week - on - week. The lifting of environmental protection control in Chongqing has promoted the recovery of the operating rate, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [32]. 10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the prices of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [34][35][37][38]. 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises has decreased by 0.6% to 51% week - on - week. The demand for industrial profiles is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the operating rate of construction profiles has declined due to the off - season [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises has decreased by 1% to 64% week - on - week. Due to environmental protection and the off - season, some enterprises plan to slow down production and conduct equipment maintenance [42]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has decreased by 1.6% to 60.4% week - on - week. The continuous strengthening of environmental protection control in Henan Gongyi has restricted production capacity, and the grid order matching progress is slow [45]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises has decreased by 0.4% to 59.6% week - on - week. The high - level and volatile aluminum prices have suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises, and the overall operating rate has declined [45].
铝产业链周报-20251229
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-29 02:59