2026年度展望：聚酯产业：PX/PTA曙光初现，乙二醇静待黎明

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the textile terminal exports in China are expected to show a "low at first, then high, and mild recovery" trend. The polyester industry will achieve both scale and resilience improvement, which will support the upstream raw materials. PX prices may rise first and then fall, PTA prices may have an upward - moving center of gravity, and ethylene glycol prices may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate [3][4][5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - PX: In 2025, PX prices showed a pattern of "decline - recovery - oscillation" affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, trade policies, new capacity launches, and downstream demand. The PX - naphtha price spread was at a low level in the first quarter, and the price rebounded in the fourth quarter [11]. - PTA: The price trend of PTA in 2025 was similar to that of PX. It was supported by low processing fees in the first quarter, fell to a four - year low in April, and showed a relatively strong trend at the end of the year [14]. - Ethylene Glycol: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices hit the bottom twice. They were affected by factors such as crude oil prices, coal costs, and supply - demand patterns. The price was low at the beginning and end of the year and showed a rebound in the middle [17]. 3.2 Terminal Polyester - Textile Domestic Demand: In 2025, China's textile domestic demand showed mild recovery. The retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, and the industry's operation resilience was enhanced. In 2026, if the macro - economy and consumer confidence are further stabilized, polyester domestic demand is expected to continue to grow mildly [21][22]. - External Demand: In 2025, China's textile terminal exports showed the characteristics of "increasing volume but decreasing price". In 2026, exports are expected to show a "low at first, then high, mild recovery, and structural differentiation" trend, but the profit margin will still be under pressure [27][28]. - Polyester Fundamentals: In 2025, the downstream textile start - up rate was lower than in previous years, and the inventory first accumulated and then declined. Polyester production remained high, capacity continued to grow, exports performed well, and inventory pressure was alleviated. In 2026, polyester demand is expected to grow steadily and optimize its structure, with a planned new capacity of 467 million tons, a total capacity exceeding 96 million tons, and an expected production of 85.4 million tons [34][36][41][54]. 3.3 PX - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, there was no new PX capacity. From 2026 to 2030, the new capacity is expected to be about 17 million tons, with 2026 having new projects planned, but the actual capacity put into production in 2026 is uncertain [56]. - Production and Maintenance: In 2025, the PX device maintenance was mainly concentrated in the first and second quarters, and the annual average start - up rate was 85.58%. In 2026, maintenance is concentrated in the second and fourth quarters, and production is expected to grow moderately [58]. - Blending Oil Demand and Imports: Blending oil demand has been weakening, and PX imports may continue to increase. In 2026, gasoline demand is expected to decline, which may lead to an increase in the supply of paraxylene for chemical consumption [66][70]. - Inventory and Valuation: As of October 2025, PX social inventory was lower than in the previous two years, and the current valuation is judged to be moderately low [71][74]. - Supply - Demand Difference: In 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was tight. In 2026, it is expected to be tight in the first half of the year and may become looser in the second half if new capacity is successfully put into production [77]. - Viewpoint Summary: In 2026, assuming the marginal weakening of blending oil demand, PX supply - demand will be tight compared to 2025, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall. One - sided long opportunities can be found by paying attention to the spread between PX and naphtha [79]. 3.4 PTA - Capacity Expansion: From 2026 to 2030, China's PTA will enter a slow - expansion period. There is no new capacity plan in 2026, and new capacity is concentrated in 2027 - 2028. The new capacity of PX and PTA may be mismatched in 2026 [80]. - Production Growth: In 2025, PTA production growth slowed down. In 2026, it is expected that the annual production will grow slowly with a low growth rate [85]. - Processing Fees: In 2025, PTA processing fees were at a low level. In 2026, with no new PTA capacity and the expected increase in PX supply, PTA processing fees are expected to recover [88]. - Exports: In 2025, PTA exports decreased. In 2026, due to factors such as the lack of progress in Indian certification and foreign new capacity launches, PTA exports are expected to continue to decline [89]. - Inventory: In 2025, PTA social inventory showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In 2026, it is expected to accumulate at the beginning of the year and then decrease, especially during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" and "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" periods [92][93]. - Supply - Demand Difference: In 2026, PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose around the Spring Festival and then gradually improve from March to June and in the fourth quarter [97]. - Viewpoint Summary: In 2026, PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price center of gravity may move upward. One can focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices [99][100]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - Production Process Economics: In 2025, the gross profit of the mainstream ethylene glycol production process was still in a loss state, but it improved year - on - year [102]. - Production and Capacity: In 2025, the start - up rate of ethylene glycol increased, and production was at a high level in recent years. In 2026, new capacity is expected to expand, but the start - up rate and production growth rate may slow down [104][106]. - Imports: In 2025, ethylene glycol imports increased slightly. In 2026, the total import volume is expected to remain stable, but the import source proportion may change [114]. - Inventory: In 2025, ethylene glycol inventory increased at the end of the year. In 2026, the inventory pressure in the first half of the year is expected to be greater than that in the second half [115]. - Supply - Demand Difference: At the end of 2025, the ethylene glycol supply - demand difference showed a state of oversupply. In 2026, the supply pressure is expected to remain in the first half of the year and may improve in the second half, especially in the third quarter [121]. - Viewpoint Summary: In 2026, ethylene glycol prices may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate. There is an opportunity for price repair in the third quarter [124].