慢牛下的春季躁动

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current economic transition is characterized as a "slow bull" market, with the upcoming spring rally expected to be more stable and prolonged compared to previous years [4][6] - The report highlights that the A-share market has solidified its lower trading range amidst global concerns over AI bubbles and interest rate hikes, suggesting a clear starting point for the spring rally [4][6] - Historical analysis of major tech investment cycles in A-shares, such as the mobile internet and new energy vehicle trends, reveals that these cycles typically unfold in three phases: capital expenditure recovery, performance validation, and peak performance leading to market decline [4][8] Industry Analysis - The AI industry has seen a significant increase in capital expenditure since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, with major Chinese internet companies committing to AI strategies [27][28] - Currently, only the optical module segment appears to be in the performance validation phase, while other segments of the AI industry are still in the initial phase of capital expenditure driving valuation increases [27][28] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the stock market as the AI technology revolution gains full momentum [27][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors with marginal catalysts, as the current market phase is characterized by a gradual upward trend rather than aggressive speculation [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of waiting for new catalysts to emerge before making significant investments, as the A-share market is expected to reach new highs in the future [4][5]