供需双减宽幅震荡：长江期货尿素周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is currently in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating widely in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton. The increase in urea maintenance devices has led to a decrease in daily output and a reduction in supply. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, mainly for reserve procurement, while the increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. The port inventory has started to accumulate again, but the accumulation rate is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices rose. On December 26, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.24% increase. The highest price during the period was 1743 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1694 yuan/ton. The average daily price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1693 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.01% increase [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea weakened. On December 26, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 42 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 47) - (- 24) yuan/ton [3][6]. - The increase of the urea 05 contract was relatively large, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On December 26, the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 68) - (- 49) yuan/ton [3][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 81.6%, 1.09 percentage points lower than last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 56.27%, 1.53 percentage points lower than last week. The average daily urea output was 19.05 tons. Some devices in Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Anhui, Henan, Hubei, etc. resumed production, and the daily output first decreased and then increased [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market had average trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 25, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small lumps (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was 850 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price center 20 yuan/ton lower than the same period last week [3][13]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the increase in urea prices, the production profit of urea recovered slightly [13]. Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 98.4%. In terms of agricultural demand, most purchases were for reserves. In terms of industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer production capacity increased slightly, the operating load rate of melamine decreased, and overall production and sales were relatively stable [17][18]. Industrial Demand - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.75%, 1.62 percentage points lower than last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.2 tons, an increase of 0.66 tons from last week. Winter storage was proceeding as planned, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production flexibly. The production and sales in Northeast China were fair [22]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 59.47%, 1.3 percentage points lower than last week, with a weekly output of 3.068 tons. Some devices of several enterprises had temporary shutdowns or maintenance, while some others resumed normal production. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support for the panel market strengthened [26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 88.3 tons, a decrease of 9.6 tons from last week. Urea port inventory was 29.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, equivalent to 21.5 tons, a decrease of 226 receipts (equivalent to 0.452 tons) from last week [3][28]. Key Points of Concern - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]