Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Breeding Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020750 [1] Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Pig - In the short term, supply-demand mismatch boosts price rebound, but supply growth and inventory accumulation limit the upside. In the medium to long term, supply remains high before the first half of next year, and prices are under pressure in the off-season. Prices are expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [5][58]. Egg - Currently, supply is sufficient, and prices are under pressure. In the medium to long term, supply pressure remains, but there is support at the bottom. The market will experience a grinding process, and attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. Corn - In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be released, and the market should be cautious about chasing high prices. In the medium to long term, there is strong cost support, but the supply-demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upside [7][105]. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Breeding View Summary Pig - Period and Spot End: As of December 26, the national spot price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.82 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,645 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of contract 03 was 175 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price fluctuated narrowly, first falling and then rising [5][58]. - Supply End: In September, the official inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly. In October, capacity reduction accelerated under policy regulation and profit losses, but it was still above the normal level of 39 million. With improved production performance, supply will remain high before the first half of next year and decrease marginally after August. Supply pressure is still high from December to the first quarter of next year. The planned pig出栏 of large-scale enterprises in December increased month-on-month. Retailers and second fattening showed stronger reluctance to sell, and the proportion of large pig出栏 decreased. The average出栏 weight stagnated and declined [5][58]. - Demand End: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased after the Winter Solstice but rebounded later due to the basic demand in the twelfth lunar month. Terminal consumption was lower than expected, and the fresh sales rate decreased. Slaughterhouses actively digested frozen inventories, but the frozen product sales were average, and the frozen product inventory rate decreased slightly. With the support of New Year's Day and Spring Festival stocking demand, the decline in slaughter volume was limited or gradually increased. However, the high frozen product inventory limited the positive support, and future frozen product outflows would put pressure on supply [5][58]. - Cost End: The piglet price fluctuated slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self-breeding and self-raising profit loss narrowed, and the cost of self-breeding and self-raising fattening pigs for 5 months increased slightly compared to last week. The national pig-grain ratio reached the warning level, and the state mainly carried out rotation storage. Attention should be paid to national policies [5][58]. - Weekly Summary: In the short term, the supply-demand mismatch boosts price rebound, but supply growth and inventory accumulation limit the upside. In the medium to long term, supply remains high before the first half of next year, and prices are under pressure in the off-season. Prices are expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [5][58]. - Strategy Suggestion: The main contract is undervalued and rebounds under the push of supply-demand mismatch and macro funds, but the rebound is under pressure due to increased supply and inventory accumulation. Wait for the off-season contract to rebound and then go short. For the far-month contract, although capacity is reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level, and costs are decreasing. Be cautious about bullish views. Before effective capacity reduction, the industry can hedge at high profits and operate in a rolling manner [5][58]. Egg - Period and Spot End: As of December 26, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2602 was 2,957 yuan/500 kg, up 71 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was -137 yuan/500 kg, down 51 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price fluctuated at a low level. As New Year's Day approached, the enthusiasm for purchasing low-priced goods increased, but caution was exercised towards high-priced goods [6][84]. - Supply End: The newly laid hens in December correspond to the replenishment in July 2025, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines, at the historical average level. The current spot price is still weak, driving the elimination of old hens, and the supply pressure is marginally reduced. However, the inventory base is still large, and the market supply pattern remains sufficient, which will still put pressure on egg prices in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the deterioration of breeding profits, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has continued to decline. The replenishment volume from August to November 2025 decreased significantly year-on-year and was at the historical average level, corresponding to a small number of newly laid hens from January to April 2026. However, the tight supply pattern of chicks has eased, making it difficult to over-eliminate and easy to replenish. The market will experience a repeated bottoming process, and it will still take time to clear the production capacity. Overall, the medium to long-term supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. - Demand End: The New Year's Day stocking is approaching the end, and the procurement demand from channels has declined. However, the current egg price has fallen to a relatively low level, and further decline will easily stimulate the increase in channel inventory demand. In terms of substitutes, the pork price has been under long-term pressure, and the vegetable price has remained high. The high cost performance of eggs drives the improvement of terminal substitution demand, which supports the egg price [6][84]. - Weekly Summary: Currently, the sufficient supply puts pressure on the spot price, driving the high enthusiasm for eliminating old hens. Coupled with the small number of newly laid hens, the supply pressure is marginally reduced. At the same time, the egg price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is still support from the Spring Festival demand. Coupled with the high vegetable price, there is support at the bottom of the egg price. Overall, the short-term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price fluctuates at a low level. In the medium to long term, the replenishment volume from August to November 2025 decreased significantly year-on-year and was at the historical average level, corresponding to a small number of newly laid hens from January to April 2026. However, the tight supply pattern of chicks has eased, making it difficult to over-eliminate and easy to replenish. The market will experience a repeated bottoming process, and the medium to long-term supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. - Strategy Suggestion: The current 02 contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a historical low. Breeding enterprises should wait for the price to rebound and then hedge at high prices. In the medium term, the replenishment of chicks has declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the pressure of newly laid hens is not large. If a large number of hens are eliminated around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the supply pressure after the festival. In the long term, it will still take time to clear the production capacity, and the supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to external environmental protection policies, epidemics, and other passive capacity reduction factors [6][84]. Corn - Period and Spot End: As of December 26, the corn flat price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 78 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price adjusted narrowly, and the purchase and sales in the producing areas slowed down. The reluctance to sell of grain holders at the grass-roots and channel levels still existed, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory building enthusiasm and grain sales rhythm. The main contract 03 rebounded significantly in the second half of the week, currently at a discount to the spot, and the basis was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [7][105]. - Supply End: The national grass-roots grain sales rate was 45%, 4% faster than the same period last year. The grain sales in the producing areas slowed down, and the auction of imported policy grains had good results, boosting market sentiment. The reluctance to sell of grain holders at the grass-roots and drying tower levels still existed, and the market supply slowed down. As the grain sales progress in North China was slower than the same period last year, there were not many trucks arriving at the deep processing plants. There may still be a demand for grain sales at the grass-roots level before the Spring Festival, which is expected to relieve the short-term tight pattern. In November, the corn import volume was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56% and a year-on-year increase of 86.7%. The import of sorghum increased month-on-month and decreased year-on-year, and the import of barley decreased month-on-month and increased year-on-year. The import of international grains remained at a low level but increased year-on-year. As of December 19, the inventories at the northern and southern ports were 1.88 million tons and 502,000 tons respectively, a month-on-month increase of 70,000 tons and 49,000 tons. As of December 26, the average number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep processing enterprises in the morning was 495, a week-on-week decrease of 199 [7][105]. - Demand End: From May to November 2024, the inventory of sows increased, and there was a slight reduction from December to January 2025. With improved performance, the inventory of pigs this year has shown an increasing trend, and the inventory of poultry has also remained at a high level. The high inventory supports the rigid demand for feed. Recently, the corn price has rebounded significantly, and the price difference between corn and wheat has narrowed. If it continues to rise, the feed use cost performance of wheat will reappear, and feed enterprises may increase the purchase of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. In terms of deep processing, as the raw material price rebounds, the processing profit has narrowed significantly. The operating rate has rebounded but is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory is at a high level, limiting the increase in deep processing demand [7][105]. - Weekly Summary: The purchase and sales in the producing areas slowed down, and the auction of imported corn had good results, boosting market sentiment. The reluctance to sell of grain holders still existed, but the downstream was cautious about high-price purchases and mainly carried out rolling inventory replenishment. Currently, the national grain sales rate is 45%, and there may still be a demand for grain sales at the grass-roots level before the Spring Festival, increasing market supply and relieving the tight pattern. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm. In the medium to long term, the planting cost of corn in the 2025/2026 season has decreased, and the weather during the growing period is suitable, so a bumper harvest is expected. However, the carry-over inventory of the old crop is low, and the import is expected to increase year-on-year but is at a low level, driving the enhancement of cost support. In terms of demand, the inventory of pigs and poultry is slowly decreasing, the feed demand is rigid, the deep processing profit is at a relatively low level in history, the finished product sales are not smooth, and the inventory is at a high level. The increase in corn processing demand is limited. Overall, the demand for new-season corn is stable and weak, limiting the upside space of corn. In general, in the short term, the high market price drives the increase in shipping enthusiasm, and it is expected that there is still selling pressure to be released. Attention should be paid to the new grain listing rhythm and channel inventory building. In the medium to long term, the old crop inventory is not much, the import remains at a low level, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom. However, the supply-demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose year-on-year, putting pressure on the upside space [7][105]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for a significant increase in the spot price, and the market should be cautious about chasing high prices. Grain holders can hedge at high prices when the price rebounds. In the medium to long term, the demand is gradually released, and there is strong support at the bottom. However, the supply-demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose year-on-year, limiting the increase [7][105].
长江期货养殖产业周报-20251229
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-29 03:20