华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is likely to move in a downward trend with a weak performance, and is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an estimated impact on the total output of construction steel of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have production suspension plans, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total trading (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. The winter storage this year was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingot - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly. The market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2026, possibly for the first time around the middle of the year. The speculation that Trump might appoint a dovish Fed chairman strengthened the expectation of looser monetary policy [1] - The domestic market was boosted by the article "Vigorously Promote the Optimization and Upgrade of Traditional Industries" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission. The market generally predicted that this policy would promote the integration process of the alumina industry chain, forcing small and medium - sized alumina enterprises with high costs and lack of bauxite resources to exit the market, and the alumina price rose rapidly [1] - In terms of supply, new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, and the daily output continued to rise. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, and the daily output was expected to continue to grow in the short - term [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% last week. Affected by factors such as weak orders, environmental protection control, and high aluminum prices, the downstream industry entered the off - season more deeply. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip decreased by 1 percentage point to 64.0%, and the operating rate of aluminum foil decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 69.3% [2] - On December 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a rise of 39,000 tons compared with last Thursday [2] - Most alumina plants and electrolytic aluminum enterprises have completed long - term contract signing. Attention should be paid to whether alumina enterprises will cut production due to profit compression. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term [3]