碳酸锂：库存偏紧格局延续，区间高位运行，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity, showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate is expected to remain in a state of tight inventory and operate at a high level within the range. The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the lithium carbonate is expected to operate at a high level, and investors should avoid chasing up and focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region stopped production for maintenance during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected resumption of production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and the total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest plan to stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices. The future outlook is for volatile and consolidating operation, and the focus should be on macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, with trading volume significantly reduced to 429,000 lots and open interest reduced to 577,000 lots. The net short position in the main contract continued, and the registered warehouse receipts continued to increase. The average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 111,900 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 18,620 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures market has higher expectations than the spot market [2] - In the market transaction, most upstream lithium salt producers focus on long - term contracts, with few spot sales. Downstream material producers are cautiously waiting and watching. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have stopped production for maintenance, and some enterprises are forced to accept high - priced goods to maintain production due to rigid demand, continuously pushing up the spot price center. The trading volume of traders is light [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening the cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% from the previous period, with a steady but slowing supply growth. On the demand side, the short - term demand decreased slightly, while the long - term demand was firmly supported. The output of ternary and lithium iron batteries decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% respectively, continuing the destocking trend. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% from the previous period and increased by 39.1% year - on - year. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 7.22% from the previous period, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% from the previous period, showing a high year - on - year growth [3] - In terms of inventory, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% from the previous period and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, with a slowing destocking slope. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% from the previous period and decreased by 27.30% year - on - year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The social inventory in four places increased by 3.30% from the previous period, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year - on - year. The tight inventory pattern remains unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices is weakening at the margin [3] - In terms of policy, the short - term supervision tightening is clear. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the series of arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive impact. Coupled with the key points of energy storage in the 14th Five - Year Plan and the continuation of the new energy vehicle trade - in subsidy, they support the long - term supply and demand. The market sentiment forms a positive cycle of "expectation - price - sentiment", which is strong but fragile, and risks such as the commissioning of new production lines, insufficient downstream acceptance, and over - bought correction should be vigilant. The future outlook is for operating at a high level, and investors should avoid chasing up and focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand. The focus should be on the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand and acceptance of high prices, the destocking slope of sample inventory, and capital and sentiment [4]