玻璃：冷修预期再起短期震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be moderately bullish with short - term fluctuations [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day. Although the supply - demand situation of glass has deteriorated in the medium - to - long - term, there are short - term speculative opportunities due to the planned shutdown of multiple glass production lines around New Year's Day and the mid - stream replenishment before the Spring Festival. Technically, the bulls slightly dominate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that last week, the glass futures rebounded slightly. With the clear cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month and the rumored shutdown plans in Hubei, the expectation of supply reduction was hyped, slightly pushing up the market. The demand for thin - plate glass from home appliance orders supports the market, but most manufacturers focus on collecting payments and are bearish on next year's market. Given the high supply pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass production capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. The outlook is that glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day [3]. - The operating strategy is to be moderately bullish [4]. 3.2 Market Review - Spot price: As of December 26, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,010 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (-20) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The futures price of the glass 05 contract closed at 1,057 yuan/ton last Friday, up 16 yuan from the previous week [11]. - Monthly spread: As of December 26, the futures price of soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 1,057 yuan/ton, with a spread of 143 yuan/ton (+8). The basis of the glass 05 contract was - 37 yuan/ton (-36) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-6) [12][17]. 3.3 Profit - Cost and profit of different processes: For the natural - gas - based process, the cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 392 yuan/ton (-10). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,162 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 152 yuan/ton (-19). For the petroleum - coke - based process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 27 yuan/ton (-20) [21]. - Fuel prices: On December 26, the industrial natural - gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US sulfur 3% shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 573 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass was 154,105 tons/day (-1,000) last Friday, with 218 production lines in operation. The fourth line of Dongguan Humen of Guangdong Xinyi with a capacity of 900 tons/day shut down last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,862.3 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 1,086.2 million weight boxes (+41.2), in Central China was 704.5 million weight boxes (+19.5), in East China was 1,172.3 million weight boxes (-37), in South China was 770.5 million weight boxes (-26.8), in Southwest China was 1,190.7 million weight boxes (-6.5), the inventory in Shahe factories was 394 million weight boxes (+44), and in Hubei factories was 501 million weight boxes (+26) [27]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing were 9.7 days in mid - December (-0.4). The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 100% on December 25 (+11%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% on December 26 [31][34]. 3.7 Demand - Automobile: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [40]. - Real estate: In November, China's real - estate completion area was 45.9293 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new - construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 3 to December 21, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.55 million m², a month - on - month increase of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The real - estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [45]. 3.8 Cost - end - Soda Ash - Futures price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,200 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 100 yuan/ton (-24) [51][52]. - Profit: As of last Friday, the soda - ash profit was - 21 yuan/ton (+21). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of - 57 yuan/ton (+9); the cost of the co - production method was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit [61]. - Inventory: As of December 26, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,544 (a weekly increase of 12). The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4385 million tons (a monthly decrease of 60,800 tons), including 703,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly decrease of 68,700 tons) and 735,500 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 7,900 tons) [65][68]. - Apparent consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [72].