长江期货聚烯烃周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The destocking of polyolefins is insufficient, and there is significant upward pressure. The downstream has entered the off - season, with overall开工 declining. Although the cost of crude oil has rebounded slightly, the profit of oil - based olefins has been compressed. The supply pressure is large, and the destocking is insufficient. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with support at 6300, the PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with support at 6200, and the LP spread is expected to narrow [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic 3.1. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The average price of LDPE was 8466.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%. The average price of HDPE was 6800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6480.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 15.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 94.54%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28) [12]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 31 yuan/ton (+16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 107 yuan/ton (+12) [17]. - Spot Price: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes of various plastic products in different regions [19][20]. - Cost: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 389 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Supply: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons from last week [30]. - 2025 Production Plan: A total of 493 tons of production capacity has been put into operation or is about to be put into operation [33]. - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple enterprises have HDPE, LDPE and other device maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [34]. - Demand: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural films was 43.86%, a decrease of 1.32% from last week. The start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.22%, a decrease of 0.74% from last weekend. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.67%, a decrease of 0.33% from last weekend [36]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 36.2%, with a difference of 0.6% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 7.7%, with a difference of 0.9% from the annual average level [39]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.15 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.60% [42]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11265 lots, a decrease of 67 lots from last week [46]. PP 3.3. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6292 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% [50]. 3.4. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The report provides the prices and price changes of PP - related products and some downstream products [52][54]. - Basis: On December 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6153.33 yuan/ton (- 1.60%). The PP basis closed at - 139 yuan/ton (- 179), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33) [56]. - Month - spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+2), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (+31) [61]. - Cost: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [66]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.41 yuan/ton from last weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44 yuan/ton from last weekend [71]. - Supply: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [74]. - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple enterprises have PP production line maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [77]. - Demand: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 53.24% (- 0.56). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.26%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.36% (- 0.14%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.73% (- 2.34%) [79]. - Import and Export Profit: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 318.03 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The export profit was - 1.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.33 tons (- 0.84%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 1.02% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.60% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 1.78% month - on - month [87]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14905 lots, an increase of 3971 lots from last week [95].