止跌企稳：长江期货鲜果月报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the medium and long - term. Although the current low - price oranges affect apple consumption, the low apple inventory in storage and high warehouse receipt costs will support prices in the future [43]. - The price of red dates is gradually bottoming out. The 2025 production of Xinjiang grey dates has decreased significantly compared to 2024, and after the price decline, it is entering a stable stage despite weak consumption [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 12 - month Fresh Fruit Price Trend - In December, the apple futures showed a relatively strong shock, with the main contract having strong support at 9000. The red date price gradually found its bottom and fluctuated around 9000 [8]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - Downstream Consumption: In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4389.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%). From January to November, the cumulative total was 45606.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The growth rate of commodity retail sales in November was 1.0%, with quality and upgraded consumer goods performing well. The consumption of basic necessities such as grain, oil, food, and clothing also showed an upward trend [13]. - Price Level: In November, the national CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Food prices increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and fresh fruit prices turned from a decline to an increase, rising 0.7% year - on - year [16]. - Fruit Prices: As of the 52nd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg. Most of the six types of fruits showed price increases [17]. 3.3 Apple Price Outlook - Wholesale Market Price: As of December 19, 2025, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.30 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.14 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [24]. - Main Production Areas: In Shandong, the prices in different regions and grades range from 1.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi, they range from 2.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin [29]. - Cold Storage Situation: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main production areas of the country was 7.4404 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89400 tons, and the inventory removal speed was lower than the same period last year [31]. - Sales Area Market: In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving in the Guangdong Chalong market increased. The market consumption improved slightly, but there was pressure to digest the daily arrivals of trucks, and high - quality Gansu apple sources were the main ones sold [35]. - Storage Profit: During the acquisition stage of the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit statistics for 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [39]. - Market Outlook: Due to low apple storage volume and high quality problems leading to high warehouse receipt costs, and the impact of low - priced oranges on current consumption, prices are adjusting at a high level. In the future, low storage volume will affect the market, and prices are expected to remain strong in the medium and long term [43]. 3.4 Red Date Outlook - Spot Price: In different markets such as Hebei Cuierzhuang, Henan, and Guangzhou Ruyifang, the prices of red dates vary by grade, with actual transactions based on quality [47]. - Inventory Data: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 15898 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210 tons (a 1.30% decrease), and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market arrival volume is gradually increasing [49]. - Sales Area Market Profit: This week, the average purchase price of grey dates in the Xinjiang main production area was 5.75 yuan/kg, the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales area was 8.00 - 9.00 yuan/kg, and the gross profit was equivalent to 0.98 yuan/kg [53]. - Market Outlook: The 2025 production of Xinjiang grey dates is about 573,800 tons, a 23.49% decrease compared to 2024. The consumption end is weak, but the price is stabilizing after the decline [57].