现货需求承压，宏观预期向上，铜矿供给约束：铜周报20251228-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper spot demand is under pressure, the macro - expectation is upward, and there are constraints on copper mine supply [1] - The copper futures market shows a strong performance, while the spot demand is weak, and the discount is widening [10] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - On December 24, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened compared to the previous Friday [12] - The copper market shows a situation of strong futures and weak spot demand with an expanding discount [10] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.25 per ton week - on - week to - $44.9 per ton, remaining at a low level [14] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week and lower compared to the same period last year [17] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [19] - The estimated domestic electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month, and exported 143,000 tons, an increase of 116.8% month - on - month [22] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly [23] - LME copper continued to destock, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [24] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week and is expected to remain under pressure next week [26] - From December 1st to 21st, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 1% year - on - year and 3% compared to the same period last month [28] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly [31] - The planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January increased by 6% compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year, with household air conditioners increasing by 11% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [37] - The US GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, with the core PCE increasing by 2.9% [39] - The US labor market is recovering, with the ADP weekly average private employment showing positive growth for three consecutive weeks [42]