全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | USD | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [26] 2. Core Views of the Report - Christmas holiday led to thin trading in overseas markets, but risk appetite moderately rebounded. US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, and the employment market remained resilient. In China, short-term macro negatives were limited, and the Beijing real estate policy boosted the market [5]. - Global equity markets generally rose, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. The USD index weakened, while the RMB appreciated. Global commodity markets were strong, especially precious metals and non-ferrous metals [7][8][10][24]. - US stocks are expected to oscillate higher due to strong Q3 GDP and positive year - end seasonality. A - shares are likely to have a positive and oscillating trend, supported by the Beijing real estate policy. Treasuries are expected to strengthen, with long - term bonds likely to outperform short - term ones [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Overseas: Christmas trading was thin, but risk preference rose. US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, driven by consumer spending. The employment market remained resilient, and the political pressure on the Fed increased. The market was optimistic about future liquidity, and the metal sector rose sharply [5]. - Domestic: Short - term macro negatives were limited. The Beijing real estate policy boosted the market, and various hot topics performed well. The stock market is expected to oscillate positively [5]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global equity markets generally rose. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.51%, etc. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose 3.1%, etc. MSCI indices also rose, with emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [7][8]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The USD index weakened by 0.69% to 98. The RMB appreciated by 0.46% against the USD, reaching below 7.01. Other major currencies also showed different trends, with some appreciating and some depreciating [10][11]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global 10 - year government bond yields fluctuated narrowly. In developed countries, US bond yields fell 2bp to 4.14%, while Japanese bond yields rose 2bp. In emerging markets, Chinese bond yields rose 1bp to 1.84% [14][15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market was strong, with the spot market oscillating at a high level and the futures index rebounding. Energy prices were weak, while the metal sector was strong. Gold and silver rose significantly, with silver rising over 18% [20][24]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is rated as oscillating. Overseas silver short - squeeze trading is nearing the end, increasing the risk of a decline and dragging down gold. The actual interest rate slightly rose, the USD index oscillated, and the RMB appreciated. The internal - external price difference of gold increased without a one - sided trend. The speculative position data of Comex gold futures was lagging, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly increased. The silver price short - squeeze may be ending, and attention should be paid to the decline risk [26][32][38]. 3.3.2 USD - The USD is rated as bearish. Although the US GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, it will not change the interest - rate cut rhythm, so the USD is expected to continue to decline [26]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are rated as oscillating. The Q3 GDP data supported market risk preference, and the market volatility decreased. The year - end seasonality of US stocks is strong, and they are expected to oscillate higher [26][43][50]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are rated as oscillating. Short - term macro negatives are limited, and the Beijing real estate policy boosts the market. The market is expected to have a positive and oscillating trend, and long positions in stock indices can be held [26][51][54]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are rated as oscillating. With fewer trading days next week, institutional behavior will be more stable, and the weak manufacturing PMI may drive the bond market to strengthen. Long - term bonds are expected to outperform short - term ones [26][60]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - GDPNow model estimates Q4 growth at 2.97%, and the red - book retail sales increased by 7.2% year - on - year. Oil prices were weak, and inflation expectations fell. Unemployment benefit claims remained high, and the employment market continued to cool but remained resilient [76]. - Bank reserves were 2.93 trillion, TGA account balance rose to 861.4 billion, and overnight reverse repurchase scale rose to 20.03 billion. High - yield corporate bond credit spreads slightly declined, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations cooled slightly. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January rose to 82.3%, and 2 interest - rate cuts are expected in 2026 [83]. - November's non - farm data was mixed. New employment was better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. CPI and core inflation decreased, and the pressure on core inflation further eased [86]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - Beijing issued real - estate policies to stimulate demand, but the policy strength is still weak, and the support for housing prices is limited [87]. - In November, economic indicators showed a weakening trend in total volume, with a supply - strong and demand - weak structure. Investment and social retail sales declined, while industrial production was relatively stable [97]. - In November, credit data continued to be weak, and private - sector financing willingness was low. Government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while non - standard and corporate bonds supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. M1 and M2 growth rates declined [99]. - In November, CPI and PPI showed a K - shaped divergence. CPI was in line with expectations and trended upward, while PPI was weaker than expected. Food prices supported CPI, while tourism, oil prices, and rent dragged it down. PPI was suppressed by "anti - involution" and input factors [108]. - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, while imports increased by 1.9%, slightly lower than expectations. In the future, exports are expected to remain resilient [109].