股指关注阻力位，债市或震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views - Stock Index: The Chinese Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expanding fiscal expenditure and supporting the replacement of consumer goods. In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The market's main line rotates quickly, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 4000 points. Whether the trading volume can continue to expand is crucial. The stock index may fluctuate [9]. - Treasury Bonds: The current bond market lacks significant positive or negative factors, and its trend is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. Without unexpected events in the last few trading days of the year, the market may remain dull. In the short term, if both short - and long - term yields enter a sideways consolidation, there is a risk of yields rising again to test the upper limit of the range since November [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to 3963.68 points. Non - ferrous metals, steel, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while electronics, comprehensive, and light manufacturing sectors led the losses [9]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate with a slight upward bias [9]. - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to move in a range [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.36% to 112.960 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10% to 108.300 yuan, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05% to 106.050 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% to 102.548 yuan [10]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate with a slight upward bias [10]. - Strategy Outlook: The bond market is expected to move in a fluctuating manner [10]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded from a low to 49.2%, still below the boom - bust line and lower than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 49.4%. The rebound was driven by a pulse - like strengthening of external demand. However, the rebound was weak as the business climate of large enterprises declined. The price index of purchased raw materials reached a 5 - year high, indicating an expected rise in PPI month - on - month growth. The rebound was still weak in three aspects: the reading was significantly lower than the same period in previous years, the pressure of contraction was still spreading, and the downturn had lasted for a long time [17]. CPI - In November, the year - on - year CPI strengthened, and the month - on - month PPI remained positive, due to seasonal factors, the low - base effect, and "anti - involution". The year - on - year CPI has fluctuated below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and the year - on - year PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating weak domestic demand. At the end of the year and during the Spring Festival, the year - on - year CPI is expected to continue to rise, and the year - on - year PPI is also expected to rebound [20]. Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $3303.5 billion, imports were $2186.7 billion, and the trade surplus was $1116.8 billion. Labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products respectively drove the overall export growth in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01%, with the driving rates increasing by 1.03pp, 5.06pp, and 1.55pp respectively compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America strengthened, but since November 9, the year - on - year growth rates of global, US imports, and China's container bookings to the US have continued to decline, indicating a high probability of pressure on December exports [22][23]. Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service production index dropped to 4.2%. The reasons for the weakening of industrial added value are the suppression of "anti - involution" on the output of key industries and the high base established by strong production after policy implementation in September 2024 [24][27]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year fixed - asset investment (FAI) fell 2.6%. It is estimated that the year - on - year FAI in November was - 11.1%, a slight increase from October. Private investment growth rebounded to - 12.9%, while public investment growth continued to decline to - 8.9%. In terms of expenditure directions, the year - on - year growth of construction and installation projects/equipment and tools purchase in November decreased to - 16.1% and 6.3% respectively, and the growth of other expenses slightly rebounded to - 13.8%. Infrastructure and real estate investment growth continued to decline, while manufacturing investment showed a slight increase [30]. Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales (SRS) dropped to 1.3%, lower than market expectations and the weakest since 2023. The reasons for the weakening of SRS are the weakening of durable - goods consumption after the reduction of national subsidies, the weak performance of the "Double 11" sales, and the continued weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption [33]. Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. Bills continued to be used for volume - boosting, and medium - and long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to increase less year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing scale remained at 6.3%. The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization in the future [36].