碳酸锂周报：下游排产下滑，价格上方承压-20251229

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore to produce carbonate lithium faced cost inversion [5]. - Demand side: Overall production scheduling in December decreased month - on - month, while large battery cell manufacturers' production scheduling in November increased by 2% month - on - month. In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - Inventory: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]. - Strategy: From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine remains shut down, and Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses (all expired, with no impact on actual supply). In November, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 3% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 729,000 tons, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The total import of carbonate lithium in November was about 22,000 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease but a 15% year - on - year increase. Downstream demand is strong, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage remains good, but production scheduling in January is expected to decline slightly. In November, cathode production scheduling increased by 2% month - on - month. The risk of Yichun's mining licenses persists. With profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production, and the cost center shifts upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption within the year has failed. After cathode material manufacturers jointly cut production, downstream production scheduling is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. As downstream purchases of carbonate lithium slow down the destocking rate and traders' inventory accumulates, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Key Data Tracking Production - related Data - Carbonate lithium weekly production: Last week, production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons [5] - Carbonate lithium production by raw material in November 2024: Salt lake accounted for 19.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, and lithium spodumene 45.37% [25][26] Import - related Data - In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. Imports from Australia increased by 44% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons (a 28% month - on - month decrease), and from Nigeria were 92,000 tons (a 16% month - on - month decrease). In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease, with 10,800 tons from Chile, accounting for 49% [5] Battery - related Data - In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase [6] Inventory - related Data - This week, carbonate lithium factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]