供应偏紧需求续弱，沪锌维持震荡偏强走势

Report Title - Supply Tightness and Weakening Demand: Shanghai Zinc Maintains a Sideways - Bullish Trend [1] Report Date - December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market has a supply - tight and demand - weak situation, and Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain a sideways - bullish trend. The tight supply is due to smelters' production cuts caused by raw material issues, while the demand shows a weakening trend overall [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Industry Data: Domestic zinc ore is in short supply, and zinc ore processing fees are falling rapidly, providing some support for zinc prices. In December, the decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued. The domestic zinc concentrate production decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 31.14 million tons, while the import volume increased by 52.27% to 51.90 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons. The export volume increased by 402.59% to 4.2816 million tons. The total supply increased by 2.14% month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.86% [8] - Futures Prices: Last week, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, strong economic data boosted demand prospects, but the increase in overseas inventories put pressure on LME zinc prices. Domestically, the overall macro environment was positive, and smelters' maintenance due to raw material issues continued, supporting Shanghai zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai - London ratio will continue to decline this week [9] - Spot Prices: In Guangdong, inventory is decreasing, the market premium is rising, but the downstream consumption is average, and it is expected to fluctuate this week. In Shanghai, some traders cleared their inventories at the end of the year, and the downstream consumption was in the off - season. It is expected that the spot supply will be low and the premium will not decline significantly. In Tianjin, the premium increased last week but is expected to decline due to new environmental warnings. In Ningbo, the premium was high but is expected to fluctuate this week due to poor downstream orders [12] 3.2 Supply Side - Processing Fees: The weekly average of SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 2.74 dollars/dry ton to 47.39 dollars/dry ton. At the end of the month, the negotiation of January zinc concentrate processing fees between domestic smelters and mines is ongoing. The import market was quiet during the Christmas holiday, with few offers [15] - Zinc Concentrate Production: The production of zinc concentrate is affected by factors such as smelter production cuts and import window opening [15] - Zinc Concentrate Inventory: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 2.7 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.67 million physical tons from the previous week. Huangpu Port and Fangchenggang Port contributed to the main reduction [8] - Refined Zinc Production: In December, refined zinc production continued to decline. It is estimated that the production in December will decrease by 14,000 tons to 512,000 tons, with a daily - average decrease of 5.8%. The cumulative production from January to December is expected to be 6.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [28] - Mineral and Ingot Imports: In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 519,000 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 52.27% and a year - on - year increase of 13.84%. The import of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.15% [34] - Import and Export Profits: The import window remained closed, and the possibility of opening within the year was low. The export window closed in December [36] 3.3 Demand Side - Downstream Prices: The prices of downstream zinc products such as Zamak5 zinc alloy, Zamak3 zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dipped galvanized products are presented in the report [39] - Downstream开工情况: The weekly galvanizing开工 rate increased by 1.05% to 56.67% due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production by northern enterprises, but the demand is weakening. The weekly zinc oxide开工 rate increased by 2.08% to 57.04% as some enterprises recovered from environmental protection - related production cuts and had better demand. The weekly die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate increased by 8.09% to 52.80% as some enterprises resumed production and the downstream demand improved [8] - Downstream Inventory Days: The inventory data of downstream zinc processing enterprises and smelters' finished products are presented, including raw material inventory, finished product inventory of zinc alloys and zinc ingots, and inventory days [46] 3.4 Inventory Changes - Futures Inventory: LME zinc inventory increased by 6.98% to 106,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1.83% to 42,100 tons [8] - Spot Inventory: As of December 25, the total SMM zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 7.87% from December 18. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangdong decreased, while the inventory in Shanghai remained unchanged. The bonded area inventory remained stable at 3,300 tons [8] 3.5 Macro - disturbances - Macro - disturbance Factors: The exchange rate, Shanghai - London ratio, US dollar index, and US federal funds target rate are presented in the report, but no in - depth analysis of their impact on the zinc market is provided [57]