南华期货金融期货早评-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market last week was characterized by the strong rise of non - ferrous metals and the accelerated appreciation of the RMB. There are risks of correction in non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [5][7][8]. - The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium have high - level volatility, and there are opportunities for long - term price increases but short - term risks; gold and silver are still strong, but silver has high price risks; copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, etc. have different price trends and influencing factors [14][19][21]. - In the black market, steel prices are expected to be volatile, iron ore is neutral with price support and pressure, and the situation of coking coal and coke depends on factors such as production resumption [33][34][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, the oil price is in a low - level shock, and the performance of various chemical products such as LPG, PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies [44][45][48]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs need to be verified, the performance of oilseeds, oils, cotton, sugar, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand relationship and policy [82][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The market is influenced by factors such as the two - main - line characteristics of non - ferrous metals and RMB appreciation, and there are risks in the short - term rise of non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: There is a discussion about the long - term appreciation of the RMB, but there are limitations in applying relevant theories. The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate differential is the core trigger for appreciation, and there are potential risks [4]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of the index [5][7]. - Treasury Bond: The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [8]. - Container Shipping European Line: The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: There is high - level volatility, and the long - term price is expected to rise, but there are short - term risks. Attention should be paid to factors such as policy adjustments and market supply and demand [14][15][17]. - Gold & Silver: They are still strong, but silver has high price risks, and short - term trading should be cautious [19][20]. - Copper: The price is affected by the game between industrial and speculative funds, and there are risks in trading around the New Year [21][23]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina has an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [24][25]. - Zinc: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26][27]. - Tin: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and there is limited upward space in the short term [27]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there are opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term [28][29]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited short - term improvement in fundamentals, and polysilicon is in a shock state. Attention should be paid to technical aspects [30][31]. - Lead: It is expected to be in a shock range [32]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are expected to be volatile, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand [33][34]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are neutral, with price support from steel mill replenishment demand and pressure from high supply [35][36]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The future trend depends on factors such as the resumption of domestic mines and the production of iron and steel enterprises [37][38]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper market has a slight increase in valuation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand [42][44]. - Crude Oil: The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk premiums and weak fundamentals, and it is in a low - level shock [45]. - LPG: The near - term is supported, and the future is under pressure. Attention should be paid to marginal changes [46][47]. - PTA - PX: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. PX has a good supply - demand pattern, but there is a risk of callback [48][51]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand side is weak, and the valuation is under pressure. The market is expected to be affected by macro - narratives [53][54]. - Methanol: It is recommended to buy at a low level [55][56]. - PP: It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and the focus is on the scale of device maintenance in January [58][59]. - PE: It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, and the upward space is limited [61][62]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: They have rebounded at a low level, but it is not recommended to chase high prices [63][64]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited cracking drive. Both are recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - Rubber: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and different rubber varieties have different trading strategies [68][70]. - Urea: It is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [71][72]. - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda & Glass: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation; glass has high inventory and low - season pressure; caustic soda is in a weak state and is expected to be in a wide - range shock [73][74][76]. - Log: It can be considered to use an option double - selling strategy [78][79]. - Propylene: It is necessary to pay attention to marginal changes, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock [80][81]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified. The short - term is based on fundamentals, and the long - term can be bullish [82]. - Oilseeds: The short - term is affected by weak reality, but there are opportunities for phased rebounds [83][84]. - Oils: They are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term, and palm oil is relatively strong [86]. - Cotton: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there is upward space in the long term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [87][88]. - Sugar: There is pressure for the price to rise further in the short term [89]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and short - term trading should be cautious [90]. - Apples: There is pressure on the disk due to the slowdown in consumption, and there are opportunities to build long positions after a pullback [91][92]. - Red Dates: They are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term, and the long - term price is under pressure [93].