有色金属周度策略-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The general continuation of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the non - ferrous metal mining end support the sector's performance. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market has weakened the US dollar, which is favorable for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may cause the overseas market to perform relatively stronger. During the Christmas period, capital outflows increased volatility, but the domestic non - ferrous and precious metals markets remained strong, and the US market followed the domestic market for a catch - up rise [10]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong and weak differentiation within the sector. It is necessary to pay attention to the resonance opportunities between macro and micro factors. For example, copper has tight supply - demand fundamentals in the long - term, and the funds' enthusiasm remains high. The copper price has reached a new high, driving the upward rotation of the sector [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro - logic: The non - ferrous metals sector is strongly influenced by macro factors. Monetary easing continues, and there are continuous contradictions in the mining end. Japan's intervention in the exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. During the Christmas period, capital outflows increase volatility, but the domestic market is stronger, and the US market follows the domestic market [10]. - Investment Recommendations for Each Metal: - Copper: The acceptance of high copper prices by domestic downstream industries is increasing, and terminal demand is in the seasonal peak season. The production of copper products has reached a high level this year and is expected to continue rising in December. The long - term processing fees for copper concentrate in 2026 have decreased significantly, indicating future supply shortages. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the short - term upper pressure range at 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 99,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [3][11]. - Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys: The aluminum market has complex supply - demand conditions. The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry is increasing, while the operating capacity of alumina has decreased. The downstream demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to buy on dips for aluminum and hold short positions for alumina [12]. - Zinc: The domestic non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and zinc is expected to follow the upward trend. The processing fees are decreasing, and the domestic zinc spot inventory is falling. It is recommended to buy on dips when the price does not fall below the support level, with the upper pressure range at 23,500 - 23,600 yuan and the short - term lower support at 22,800 - 23,000 yuan [6]. - Lead: The domestic non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and lead has strengthened significantly in the second half of the week. There may be production cuts in some recycled lead due to environmental protection measures, and there is cost support. However, the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trends with the short - term lower support at 16,700 - 16,800 yuan and the upper pressure at 17,500 - 17,700 yuan [6]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and nickel has outstanding performance. There are expectations of supply reduction and cost increase in the nickel industry. Stainless steel has followed nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on nickel and buy on dips for stainless steel [7][13]. - Tin: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong, and tin has a small upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the mining end situation and policy regulation. The upper pressure range is 350,000 - 355,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 310,000 - 320,000 yuan [6]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Price Changes: The report provides the closing prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metal futures in the past week. For example, copper closed at 98,720 yuan with a 5.95% increase, and aluminum closed at 22,405 yuan with a 1.66% increase [14]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Spot Price Changes: The report presents the spot prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 98,040 yuan/ton with a 3.09% increase, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 23,220 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase [18]. Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Copper: The report includes charts on exchange copper inventory changes, SMM social copper inventory changes, copper concentrate refining fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [20][22]. - Zinc: Charts on zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market prices, and related production and inventory seasonality are provided [24][27]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Information on the relationship between aluminum inventory and price, alumina production capacity, and inventory changes is presented [36][44]. - Other Metals: Similar data tracking charts are provided for tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and other metals [54][60][70]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Arbitrage Recommendation: A reverse arbitrage opportunity between the copper 2602 - 2603 contracts is recommended. The supply - end constraints are increasing, and the Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion cycle is favorable for the far - month contracts [14]. Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Option Strategies: For different non - ferrous metals, different option strategies are recommended. For example, for copper, it is recommended to buy deep out - of - the - money long - term call options; for zinc, hold a strangle strategy; for lead and nickel, use a covered call strategy [4][6][7].