Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-29 05:43Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the integration of wood pulp and paper production, leading to an optimized long-term industry structure and upward profitability [3][5] - The report highlights the significant differences in supply and demand dynamics across various segments of the specialty paper market, suggesting a selective approach to identifying strong performers in favorable supply-demand conditions [4] - The wood pulp market is characterized by a cost structure that supports price stability, with needle pulp costs remaining high and supply-demand tightness providing a floor for prices; the report anticipates a gradual stabilization and slight improvement in pulp prices in 2026 [5][9][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that the paper industry has been in a prolonged bottoming phase, with signs of gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the boxboard and corrugated paper segments [5][6] - Cultural paper demand is under pressure due to declining birth rates, with short-term stability in demand for double-glue paper but long-term challenges anticipated [22][25] - The white card paper segment is expected to benefit from trends such as replacing plastic with paper, with strong long-term growth potential despite short-term economic pressures [44][46] Group 3 - The report outlines that the supply structure for cultural paper is becoming more concentrated, with significant new capacity expected to come online in 2026, which may exert pressure on the market [29][40] - The profitability of the industry is expected to stabilize, with a focus on companies that lead in integrated operations and cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [5][6] - The report suggests that the overall paper price stability is stronger than that of bulk paper, with capital expenditures slowing down and export demand contributing to incremental growth [5][6]