Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction and limited demand during the off - season, with steel prices oscillating. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. For rebar, production and demand both increase weekly, and inventory continues to decline. For hot - rolled coils, short - term centralized maintenance and production cuts lead to a slightly larger inventory decline. The iron ore market shows a double - decline pattern in supply and demand, with port inventory continuing to rise slightly. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose overall supply, and the inventory pressure of coke is not large, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and its inventory continued to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils accelerated slightly, which supported the price, with both futures and spot prices rising and the basis narrowing. The fundamentals of the steel market continued to improve, leading to a rebound in steel prices [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: Rebar production increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease. Rebar production from both blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased. Blast furnace production was 152.38 million tons (up 0.77% month - on - month and down 20.54% year - on - year), and electric furnace production was 29.31 million tons (up 6.35% month - on - month and up 8.76% year - on - year) [13][15][21]. - 开工率: The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (down 0.20% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.123% (up 2.21% month - on - month and down 0.94% year - on - year) [22][26]. - Profit: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded month - on - month. Rebar profit was +42 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 30 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 51 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - Demand: Rebar demand increased, while hot - rolled coil demand decreased. Rebar apparent consumption was 208.64 million tons (up 2.73% month - on - month and down 4.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 298.28 million tons (down 4.39% month - on - month and down 4.46% year - on - year) [31][35]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar total inventory was 452.54 million tons (down 5.62% month - on - month and up 12.29% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory reduction expanded slightly, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 390.72 million tons (down 1.60% month - on - month and up 26.33% year - on - year) [36][41][45]. - Downstream: In the real estate sector, commercial housing transactions increased month - on - month, while land transactions decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [46][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.32 (up 2.27% month - on - month and up 5.98% year - on - year). The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2814.7 million tons (down 5.09% month - on - month and up 9.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2646.7 million tons (down 2.80% month - on - month and up 23.76% year - on - year) [54][59]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 226.55 million tons (down 2.65 million tons month - on - month and down 2.86 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 313.45 million tons (down 1.80% month - on - month and down 3.33% year - on - year) [60][64]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore continued to reach new highs, while the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises decreased again. The inventory at 45 ports was 15512.63 million tons (up 0.53% month - on - month and up 4.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 million tons (down 1.25% month - on - month and down 8.86% year - on - year) [65][70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of domestic mines increased slightly month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.62% (up 1.54% month - on - month and down 0.55% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 20.47 million tons (up 9.86% month - on - month and up 212% year - on - year) [72][76]. - Coking Enterprises: The profit of independent coking plants decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke was +16 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (down 1.97% month - on - month and down 2.42% year - on - year) [80][84]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory remained stable. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 881.37 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 0.97% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 286.17 million tons (down 6.94% month - on - month and down 4.03% year - on - year) [85][90]. - Coke Inventory: Port inventory continued to decline, while coking plant inventory increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 51.9 million tons (up 3.57% month - on - month and up 10.19% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coke was 175.65 million tons (down 3.06% month - on - month and up 5.08% year - on - year) [91][96]. - Spot Price: The third round of price cuts for coke has started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continues. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1440 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month and down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year) [97][101]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed slightly, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils both narrowed slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to narrow, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly [103][107].
钢材周报：持续去库、淡季需求受限，钢价震荡运行-20251229
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-29 05:49