日度策略参考-20251229

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Carbonate Lithium, Silicon Iron, Glass, Cotton, Corn, PTA, Short Fiber, BR Rubber, LPG - Bearish: Palm Oil - Neutral (Oscillating): Treasury Bonds, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the Europe Route 2. Core Views - The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition, with the index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment is positive, while the industrial fundamentals are mixed across different metals, leading to varying price trends [1]. - For agricultural products, supply and demand factors, policy expectations, and cost support play important roles in price movements [1]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as production plans, supply - demand balance, cost changes, and geopolitical events influence prices [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - Index: The index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals Market - Base Metals: - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, but the macro - sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - Aluminum: There is inventory accumulation in domestic electrolytic aluminum, but the macro - sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - Alumina: After an over - decline, it rebounded. Policy continuity should be noted [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted up. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - Nickel: Indonesia plans to cut nickel ore production in 2026. The global nickel inventory is high, but the price has rebounded. It may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: Raw material prices are stable, inventory is slightly reduced, and steel mills are reducing production. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - Tin: The industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to normal. Considering the Congo situation and market sentiment, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: - Gold and Silver: The market sentiment is high, silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to a low level since 2013. They are expected to be strong in the short term, but silver may have sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The overseas prices rose on Friday, which is expected to drive up domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices have a large premium, so rational participation is advised [1]. Black Metal Market - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended. The long - short arbitrage positions can take profit on a rolling basis [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts have upward potential due to good market sentiment [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: The direct demand is weak, and the supply is high, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: After the negative news was released, the prices showed signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot market and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products Market - Palm Oil: The high - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Although there has been a rebound, the subsequent supply is expected to be more abundant. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price, but there is no strong driving force. Future policies and demand should be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus, and the domestic supply is increasing. The cost provides support if the price drops [1]. - Corn: The downstream replenishment demand is expected to drive the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean Meal: The near - term contracts are affected by customs policies, and the overall trend is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: The 01 contract is under pressure due to the approaching delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The demand is supported, and the production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemical Market - Crude Oil and Related Products: - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela affect the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the long - term demand is likely to be over - estimated [1]. - Other Chemical Products: - Industrial Silicon: The production in the northwest is increasing, and that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is decreasing in December [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: It is in the peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply is increasing, and the price is rising rapidly in the short term [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester production and sales are improving [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Some production devices are expected to stop, and the price has rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Styrene: The price has rebounded due to supply contraction, but the downstream demand is weak [1]. - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price may decline [1]. - LPG: The market is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to price changes affected by natural gas [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost is rising, the price is increasing, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. Shipping Market - Container Shipping on the Europe Route: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price increase was pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose [1].