Oracle(US:ORCL) Huachuang Securities·2025-12-29 07:06Group 1: CDS Prices and Market Trends - Oracle's 5-year CDS price reached 145.5 basis points, significantly higher than Apple's 25.7, Amazon's 35.9, Google's 39.9, and Microsoft's 35.9 basis points, but lower than the high-yield bond basket's 315.1 basis points[4] - Despite Oracle's CDS price increase, the North American high-yield bond basket's CDS price fell to 315.1 basis points, the lowest since September 26[6] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts to be lower and delayed, with the SOFR futures curve's low point at 3.1%, unchanged from October but lower than December's 3.2%[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 rose to 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since Q3 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[15] - The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index's equity risk premium (ERP) stands at 4.2%, below the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] - China's 10-year government bond forward arbitrage return is at 35 basis points, 65 basis points higher than December 2016 levels[21] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Investors maintain expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates further, with the Euribor futures curve's low point at 2.1%, higher than previous months[12] - The divergence in the copper-gold price ratio and offshore RMB exchange rate signals inconsistent trends, with the copper-gold ratio dropping to 2.7 and the offshore RMB rising to 7.0[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[29]