宏观金融数据日报-20251229

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term stock index has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation, with the A - share market's trading volume increasing and market sentiment and liquidity remaining in a good state [8] - The central bank will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy next year, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the government bond tool combination, promoting employment and income growth for residents, and boosting consumption [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Interest Rates - DROO1 closed at 1.26 with a - 0.33bp change; DR007 closed at 1.52 with a 3.95bp change; GC001 closed at 1.69 with a 33.50bp change; GC007 closed at 2.01 with a 14.00bp change; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.00bp change; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.28 with a - 3.21bp change; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.59 with a - 1.46bp change; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84 with a - 0.34bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.14 with a - 1.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 4227 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 348 billion yuan. There were also 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing, and the central bank carried out 4000 billion yuan of MLF operations and 2100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposit tenders [4] - This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, with 673 billion, 593 billion, 260 billion, and 4701 billion yuan maturing on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Sunday respectively. Among them, the 7 - day reverse repurchase maturing on Sunday is 2701 billion yuan, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase is 2000 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF当月 closed at 4657 with a 0.5% change; IH当月 closed at 3048 with a 0.5% change; IC当月 closed at 7456 with a 0.8% change; IM当月 closed at 7595 with a 0.6% change. The trading volume and position changes of each contract are also provided, such as IF trading volume increased by 36.4% to 118846, and its position increased by 6.0% to 287905 [6] - The premium and discount rates of different contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the current - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and next - month contracts are 3.00%, 2.21%, 1.80%, and 0.10% respectively; IH升贴水 are - 0.40%, - 0.88%, 0.14%, and - 1.64% respectively; IC升贴 water is 0.63%; IM升贴 water for the current - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and next - month contracts are 10.31%, 7.79%, 6.71%, and 2.66% respectively [9] 3.3 Stock Index Market - Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.2; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.37% to 3045.4; the CSI 500 rose 4.03% to 7458.8; the CSI 1000 rose 3.76% to 7605.5. The top - performing sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index were non - ferrous metals (6.4%), national defense and military industry (6%), power equipment (5.4%), electronics (5%), and building materials (4.6%) [7] - The daily trading volume of A - shares last week was 16988 billion, 17311 billion, 17071 billion, 17505 billion, and 19824 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 1817.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The total net inflow of stock - type ETFs and cross - border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets last week was 380.69 billion yuan, among which the net inflow of CSI A500 - related ETFs was 493 billion yuan [7] - On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, using ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds. The central government will contribute 100 billion yuan, and social capital is encouraged to participate at the regional and sub - fund levels. The fund will focus on strategic emerging and future industries such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, brain - computer interfaces, aerospace, and hydrogen energy storage [7]