纯碱周报：新产能投放压力较大，震荡偏弱-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is weak, with prices declining gradually. The supply has decreased due to enterprise maintenance and short - stops of equipment. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1230 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash production start - ups, new capacity launch progress, and inventory changes [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has a weak trend, with prices gradually declining and the center of gravity moving downwards. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 71.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 million tons or 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 81.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 143.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.08 million tons or 4.06%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises decreased to over 10 days, a decrease of over 2 days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises are poor. The domestic soda ash production start - up this week is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, with the expected production of downstream float glass slightly decreasing and that of photovoltaic glass remaining stable temporarily. With the supply - demand of soda ash being loose, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future [1] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with a weak trend, prices adjusted within a narrow range, the futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [5] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the domestic soda ash production was 71.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 million tons or 1.32%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 32.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 million tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 38.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 million tons. The theoretical profit of China's dual - process soda ash (dual - ton) was - 20.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50%. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 57.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.94% [7] Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic Glass: As of December 25, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,480 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79%. In December, the supply - demand gap showed an expanding trend, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, the terminal has gradually shut down, component purchases have decreased, and the consumption of photovoltaic glass has correspondingly decreased. The supply - side decline is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December. - Float Glass: As of December 25, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 73.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 77.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points. There are expectations of three production lines in East China and one production line in South China to stop production this week, and the production may decrease slightly [10] Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 25, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 143.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.08 million tons or 4.06%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 73.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.79 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 70.30 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.87 million tons [12] Position Analysis - As of December 26, the long - position volume held by the top 20 members of the soda ash futures was 732,834, a decrease of 2,423, and the short - position volume held was 884,148, a decrease of 18,226. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [14]