棕榈油期货：震荡偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. Short - term operation is recommended to focus on low - buying transactions. Key factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national average spot price of palm oil was 8,450 - 8,550 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 120 - 150 yuan/ton. Port quotes strengthened with futures, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. The basis fluctuated between - 56 and - 18 yuan/ton, with futures slightly stronger than spot, increasing traders' hedging willingness and keeping downstream stocking at a steady pace [1] Supply Situation - Malaysian palm oil production has decreased as expected, and domestic arrivals have slowed down. From December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month (SPPOMA), and the rainy - season production decline has materialized. From December 1 - 25, exports increased by 43.6% month - on - month (shipping agencies), inventory growth slowed down, and BMD palm oil led the increase, boosting the domestic market. Indonesia's B50 policy is advancing, and biodiesel demand supports the CPO price [1] Demand Situation - Holiday stocking and substitution effects provide rigid support. New Year's Day stocking has started, and food processing enterprises are making small - batch replenishments, with palm oil transactions increasing by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The catering consumption is recovering, and palm oil is substituting for soybean oil in the mid - and low - end markets, enhancing demand resilience [1] Cost - Profit Analysis - The table shows the palm oil shipping schedule quotes and import profit calculations for 2025.12.22. For example, for the January shipping schedule, the CNF in South China is 1055, the forward exchange rate is 7.0032, the import cost is 8858 yuan/ton, the market price is 8558 yuan/ton, and the profit against the market is - 300 yuan/ton [2]