中辉有色观点-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Control risks [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, medium - long term short allocation [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise sharply [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current precious metals market has entered a severely overbought zone, especially silver and platinum. They may either quickly correct to release pressure or digest gains through high - level consolidation. However, the bull market is not over as the long - term upward logic remains unchanged, including the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, rising geopolitical risks, and long - term concerns about currency credit [3][4]. - For base metals, different metals have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - environment, and policy factors [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Market Review - Loose liquidity, geopolitical events, and tariff issues have led to a large inflow of funds into precious metals [2]. 3.1.2 Basic Logic - This year, precious metals have been outstanding. Supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate cuts, and capital inflows have jointly driven the sharp rise of silver, platinum, and palladium. But other precious metals except gold face high - level volatility risks in the short term [3]. - The US dollar is depreciating, and the process of de - dollarization is ongoing. The Bloomberg dollar index is having its worst week since June, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has dropped by about one basis point to 4.14% [3]. - China will implement strategic export controls on physical silver inventories from January 1, 2026, and the US will decide whether to impose tariffs on silver and platinum by January 17, 2026 [3]. - Geopolitical risks include the US military action in Nigeria and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to geopolitical risks, improved liquidity, and continuous central - bank gold purchases. Silver has a long - term bullish logic but is currently in an overbought zone, so risks should be controlled [1]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Review - The outer - market is closed for Christmas, and the domestic copper market has an independent trend. The Shanghai copper price has reached a new historical high, breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][6]. 3.2.2 Industry Logic - The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term contract TC is set at $0/ton. High copper prices have significantly suppressed demand, and it is the consumption off - season [6]. 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - Hold copper long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious about high - level corrections. In the medium - long term, copper is still favored as a strategic resource and asset allocation alternative to precious metals [1][7]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.3 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates narrowly, and the outer - market is closed for Christmas [8][9]. 3.3.4 Industry Logic - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has decreased, and some high - cost smelters may reduce production. It is the consumption off - season, and the overseas zinc inventory has increased, suppressing the upside space [9]. 3.3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Enterprises are advised to sell hedging and actively lay out at high prices. In the medium - long term, zinc is a short - allocation in the sector [1][10]. 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Review - The aluminum price continues to rebound, and the alumina price also shows a rebound [11][12]. 3.4.2 Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of aluminum enterprises in south - western China may increase due to the approaching dry season. The inventory shows a mixed trend, and the demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is excessive, and the inventory continues to accumulate [13]. 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take short - term profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21700 - 22800] [14]. 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Review - The nickel price rebounds again, while the stainless - steel price rebounds and then falls [15][16]. 3.5.2 Industry Logic - Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel - ore production target for 2026 and plans to tax associated metals. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [17]. 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take short - term profits on nickel and stainless - steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 135000] [18]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Review - The main contract LC2605 opens high and goes high, closing above the 130,000 - yuan mark [19]. 3.6.2 Industry Logic - The price remains above the 5 - day moving average. The supply increases slightly, and the demand is supported by high - level capacity utilization of downstream material factories. The total inventory decreases slightly. The early - than - expected resumption of production by CATL may slow down the increase [20]. 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see in the range of [121700 - 135000] [21].