国贸期货塑料数据周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both PE and PP is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to move in a range [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish, basis is neutral, profit is bearish, valuation is bullish, and macro - policy is neutral. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [2] - For PP, the supply is bullish, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish, basis is neutral, profit is neutral, valuation is neutral, and macro - policy is neutral. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - Supply: This week, China's PE production was 67.22 tons, a 1.09% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase. New maintenance at Dushanzi Petrochemical was offset by restarts of some existing plants [2] - Demand: The average downstream product start - up rate decreased. In November, imports were 106.22 tons, a 9.93% year - on - year decrease and a 5.04% month - on - month increase, due to delayed shipments in October and more Iranian resources arriving in November [2] - Inventory: The sample inventory of Chinese PE producers was 45.86 tons, a 5.99% decrease from the previous period. Producers cut prices to reduce inventory, and downstream factories replenished at low prices [2] - Basis: The current main - contract basis is around 173, with the futures price at a discount [2] - Profit: Oil - and methanol - based production costs increased, while coal - and ethane - based costs decreased. The overall profit situation is bearish [2] - Valuation: The spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [2] PP Fundamental Changes - Supply: This week, domestic PP production was 79.37 tons, a 3.18% decrease from last week but a 10.56% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 76.87%, a 2.53% decrease [3] - Demand: The average start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. Weak cost support and pessimistic market sentiment among industry players [3] - Inventory: Producer inventory decreased by 0.45 tons (0.84%), port inventory increased by 0.12 tons (1.78%), and trader inventory decreased by 1.11 tons (5.62%) [3] - Basis: The current main - contract basis is around - 82, with the futures price at a premium [3] - Profit: Profits from some production methods improved, while others declined. The average weekly import profit was - 328.98 yuan/ton, a 1.49% decrease from last week [3] - Valuation: The spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - Prices: PP futures price increased by 1.27%, PE futures price increased by 2.29%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 2.95% [4] - Production and Capacity Utilization: PP production increased by 4.54%, PE production decreased by 1.09%, PP start - up rate increased by 1.87%, PE start - up rate decreased by 1.46% [4] - Inventory: PP factory inventory decreased by 4.70%, PE social inventory increased by 1.97% [4]