合成橡胶投资周报：情绪提振预期先行，BD/BR大幅上扬-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Bullish on the synthetic rubber industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for tires at home and abroad is satisfactory, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. DL Chemical's plan to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC strongly supports market sentiment. Although the supply prices of BD/BR have risen significantly, the current fundamentals of BD/BR remain weak. Attention should be paid to the news of continued exports of butadiene, the strength changes among rubber varieties, the inventory reduction progress of BD/BR, and the change in the raw material price transmission logic on the supply side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. The price increase was driven by the expectation of reduced production profit of cis - butadiene rubber due to butadiene inventory reduction in January of the next year, the news of butadiene export transactions to South Korea, and the expected macro - level benefits of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [4] 3.2 Influencing Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was [missing data] tons (with a change of [missing data]%), and the capacity utilization rate was [missing data]%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [missing data] tons (67%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. In the butadiene sector, some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, etc., were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, with a slight increase in production. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, except for the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical being shut down, other plants were operating at a high load, and the supply remained sufficient [3] 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, in the second half of the month, the market transaction remained dull, and the price was weak. The market supply was abundant, and the all - season tires were mainly for inventory reduction. In the all - steel tire market, the demand decreased, and the transaction price was chaotic. Some merchants were reducing inventory and reducing purchases, but the inventory reduction effect was not as expected [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,540 tons, a 1.56% month - on - month decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% month - on - month. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, the downstream price - pressing led to weak transactions, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 835 yuan/ton, in East China was - 735 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 685 yuan/ton [3] 3.2.5 Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,145 yuan/ton (- 0.60%); the NR - BR spread was 1,120 yuan/ton (- 16.42%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.15% [3] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,154 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 1,058.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 457 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 4.21% [3] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once exceeded 7, which was beneficial to import enterprises. The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The UK's CPI data showed that inflation pressure still existed to some extent. China's financial data in November showed that M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing stock remained at 8.5%, indicating weak domestic demand but still policy support [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately maintain long positions, and be vigilant against the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Synthetic Rubber - Related Varieties - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships among crude oil, synthetic rubber, butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, and other varieties [9] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown situations of China's butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in 2025, including production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [11] 3.6 Price Seasonal Charts and Related Data - The report presents a series of price seasonal charts, including those of cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot prices, butadiene domestic and international prices, and also includes data on production, consumption, inventory, cost, and profit of butadiene and synthetic rubber [22][23][27][28][29][31][34][38] 3.7 Downstream Industry Data - The report provides data on the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream industries such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel tires) and conveyor belts, reflecting the demand situation of the synthetic rubber industry [98][105][112]