黑色金属数据日报-20251229

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the black metal market is mixed, with different trends and characteristics in each sub - sector. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors, and the strategies for different varieties vary [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The price of steel is in a state of stable fluctuation, and the driving force is not clear. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. After January, iron - water production may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some appropriate replenishment behavior in the industry. Unilateral trading can be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive spread can still be rolled [2][4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese (Double Silicon) - The double - silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The demand has weakened significantly, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is still high, and the pressure of over - supply in the medium term remains. Although the cost support of silicomanganese is strengthening, the price may fall under pressure in the future. Industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices, and investment customers can mainly engage in reverse spreads [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market of coke has an increasing expectation of the fourth round of price cuts, and the coking coal auction has mixed results with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in an oscillatory state. The steel is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. After the basis repair of the futures market, it is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot goods [4] Iron Ore - The iron - water production shows signs of stabilizing. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has an obvious upward pressure. Considering the steel mill's maintenance plan and seasonal factors, the iron - water production is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rise in January. The steel mills will replenish the inventory before resuming production, so the price fluctuation range is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Data Summary on December 26 Futures Contracts - Far - month Contracts: RB2610 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.25%); HC2610 at 3296 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.18%); I2609 at 761 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.66%); J2609 at 1796.5 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (- 0.91%); JM2609 at 1195.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.75%) [1] - Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts): RB2605 closed at 3118 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (+0.42%); HC2605 at 3283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); I2605 at 783 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan (0.71%); J2605 at 1720 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan (- 1.12%); JM2605 at 1115.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan (- 1.02%) [1] Spread and Ratio - Cross - month Spread: RB2605 - 2610 was - 49 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; I2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was - 76.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 80 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [1] - Spread/Ratio/Profit: The coil - to - rebar spread was 165 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.98, down 0.03; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.54, down 0.01; the rebar futures profit was - 91.7 yuan/ton, down 6.93 yuan; the coking futures profit was 236.39 yuan/ton, down 7.7 yuan [1] Spot Prices - Steel Rebar: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 107.85, up 0.55 [1] - Hot - rolled Coil: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Other: The price of super - special fines at Qingdao Port was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Basis - HC main contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; RB main contract basis was 162 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; I main contract basis was 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 93.6 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; JM main contract basis was 84.5 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan [1]