烧碱周报（SH ）：现货稳中有跌，盘面小幅反弹-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are stable with a downward trend, and the futures market has a slight rebound. Supply and demand factors are both neutral, inventory is bearish, profit is bearish, and valuation is bullish. Overall, the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment maintenance and restart will coexist, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3]. - Demand: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 442,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 39.57%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08%. Warehouse inventories in the central and eastern regions decreased [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 49, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - Profit: During the period, raw material and auxiliary material costs were stable, energy costs decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The caustic soda price increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 61 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26% [3]. - Valuation: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - Macro Policy: There is currently no relevant macro - policy impact [3]. - Investment View: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Key risks to watch include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The spot market in Shandong was weak this week, and the futures market had weak support at the bottom. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The 32% caustic soda price was stable with a downward trend, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not yet stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor. There were expectations of price cuts for alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Upstream: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising. The upstream production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted. In the main production areas, maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has declined [31][34][37]. - Downstream: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the alumina start - up rate in Henan has significantly increased. Non - aluminum demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up rates are declining. The start - up rate of liquid chlorine downstream has rebounded [42][54][67].