国贸期货玻璃纯碱：驱动不足，价格震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent driving force is insufficient, and the medium - and long - term pressure expectation still exists. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable, including economic and industrial policies. Fundamentally, there is support for glass and soda ash. For glass, demand maintains resilience and supply remains stable. For soda ash, supply and demand are stable. The recommended strategy is mainly inter - month reverse arbitrage [41]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Production decreases slightly. The daily output of national float glass this week is 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The industry's start - up rate is 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.26%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the 18th. One production line was shut down for cold repair this week, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, resulting in a downward trend in weekly production [4]. - Demand: There is support, but the terminal demand support is limited. The current market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the actual support for overall production and sales is relatively limited [4]. - Inventory: Inventory fluctuates. The enterprise inventory is 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [4]. - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuates weakly this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [4]. - Valuation: Valuation is low [4]. - Macro and Policy: There are mainly policy benefits at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [4]. - Investment View: The price fluctuates recently, and supply and demand are supported [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Soda Ash - Supply: Supply decreases. This week, the soda ash output is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, but it is difficult to have a large - scale increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [5]. - Demand: The short - term direct demand weakens marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the daily melting volume of float glass decreases [5]. - Inventory: Inventory is depleted. The manufacturer's total inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons compared to last Thursday, a decline of 4.06% [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuates weakly this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [5]. - Valuation: Valuation is low [5]. - Macro and Policy: There are mainly policy benefits at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [5]. - Investment View: Supply and demand are supported in the short term, and the valuation is low [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - The price is under pressure this week. The main contract closes at 924 (- 20), and the Shahe spot price is 1057 (- 10) [7]. Soda Ash - The price fluctuates this week. The main contract closes at 1200 (+ 24), and the Shahe spot price is 1135 (+ 5) [13]. Spread/Basis - For soda ash, the 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, and the basis fluctuates downward. For glass, the 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, and the basis fluctuates downward [23]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production decreases slightly. The daily output of national float glass this week is 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The industry's start - up rate is 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.26%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the 18th. The production profit of glass decreases [25][26]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The real - estate's mid - and back - end completion data is poor. The inventory fluctuates [29][30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply decreases. This week, the soda ash output is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates [33][37]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand weakens marginally. The inventory is depleted [38].