Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of rebar and iron ore faces significant pressure, and attention should be paid to the intensity of the marginal weakening of supply and demand [2]. Group 3: Summary of Rebar Section Futures - This week, the rebar 05 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the long - position main force increasing and then reducing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3118 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [3]. Spot - This week, the mainstream rebar prices in major regions started to decline slightly, with average trading volume. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped by 8 yuan to 3316 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions showing varying changes [3]. Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.32%, a 0.15% week - on - week decrease and a 0.39% year - on - year decrease; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a 0.01% week - on - week increase and a 0.61% year - on - year decrease. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.63%, a 1.6% week - on - week decrease and a 1.25% year - on - year decrease; the average capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces was 53.22%, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease and a 0.77% year - on - year increase. The weekly rebar output increased by 2.71 tons to 184.39 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [3]. - Short - process steel mills: The estimated cost of electric arc furnaces in East China was 3159 yuan, a decrease of 8 yuan week - on - week. The profit of rebar electric arc furnaces was a loss of 149 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 18 yuan compared to last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces nationwide decreased slightly this week [3]. - Long - process steel mills: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2925 yuan, a decrease of 31 yuan week - on - week. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was 85 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan compared to last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate continued to decline slightly this week, and with the third round of coke price cuts implemented, the profit of long - process steel mills continued to expand slightly [3]. - Demand: This week, both the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.43 tons to 9.42 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 5.96 tons to 202.68 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level compared to the same period [4]. Inventory - This week, the inventories of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.29 tons to 434.25 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period. The social rebar inventory decreased by 18.81 tons to 294.19 tons, while the factory inventory increased by 0.52 tons to 140.06 tons [6]. Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, a contraction of 9 yuan compared to last week. Currently, the rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will likely contract in the future [6]. Comprehensive Judgment - As some steel mills complete their maintenance, the decline in the output of five major steel products has gradually narrowed in the short term, with rebar output increasing slightly for two consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the apparent consumption of rebar has started to decline slightly in the short term, and the rate of rebar inventory reduction has started to narrow. Attention should be paid to the pressure of seasonal demand weakening in the future. Overall, the short - term rebound of rebar faces significant pressure, and the rebound height depends on the intensity of steel mill maintenance and production restrictions and the decline in terminal demand [6]. Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Section Futures - This week, the iron ore 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the long - position main force increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.38% [6]. Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to rise steadily, with average trading volume. The prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports showed varying changes [6]. Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 22nd, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2814.7 tons, a decrease of 150.8 tons week - on - week. The Australian shipments were 1950.6 tons, a decrease of 102.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1694.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons week - on - week. The Brazilian shipments were 864.1 tons, a decrease of 48.8 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remained at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1256.4 tons, a decrease of 102.1 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the iron ore arrivals at 45 ports remained at a high level compared to the same period [6]. - Demand: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot was 120.63 tons, an increase of 28.5 tons week - on - week, and has recovered to the average level of the same period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.29 tons compared to last year, and has recovered to a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 280.04 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period [8]. Inventory - As of the 26th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8860.19 tons, an increase of 136.24 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [8]. Basis - As of Friday, the best - delivery iron ore at Rizhao Port was 817 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, an expansion of 1 yuan compared to last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is above the average level. Based on the seasonal trend and the basis regression cycle, it is expected that the iron ore basis will likely contract in the future [8]. Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipments of imported iron ore have started to decrease slightly, but the arrivals are expected to increase slightly next week, and the port inventory will continue to show an accumulation trend. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal output has changed little in the short term, the steel mill consumption has decreased slightly, and steel mills have started to replenish their inventories slightly in the short term. Overall, the short - term rebound of iron ore faces significant pressure, and the rebound height depends on the intensity of steel mill maintenance and production restrictions and the decline in terminal demand [8].
螺矿短期反弹压力较大，关注供需边际转弱力度
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-12-29 07:29