2026年宏观经济形势展望：增长动能巩固，名义增速修复

Economic Growth Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate of around 5% in 2026, with overall economic growth risks decreasing[2] - The decline in real estate investment is anticipated to narrow, supported by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market[3] - Consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing upgrades are expected to be the main drivers of growth, with these sectors projected to grow faster than in 2025[2] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to show moderate improvement, driven by rising pork and service prices, while PPI is projected to narrow its decline and potentially rebound by Q4 2026[3] - The overall price level recovery will be gradual, characterized by "moderate recovery and structural differentiation," contributing to further nominal economic growth[3] Policy Environment - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "proactive and effective," emphasizing coordination and flexibility, with increased counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 5.9 trillion yuan[61] - Monetary policy will maintain an "appropriately loose" stance, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[67] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy underperformance, unstable consumer expectations, escalating US-China strategic tensions, and geopolitical conflicts[4]